The Miami Marlins (12-11) and New York Mets (12-14) square off in Game 1 of a doubleheader Tuesday at Citi Field in Queens, N.Y. The first pitch is slated for 5:10 p.m. ET. We analyze the Marlins-Mets betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Marlins at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Daniel Castano vs. Rick Porcello
Castano has an ugly 0-2 record, 5.91 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with five walks allowed and seven strikeouts across 10 2/3 innings over three starts.
- Castano was throttled last time out in Washington, giving up two runs, a hit and two walks while recording just one out against the four batters he faced.
- Castano allowed five runs – four earned – and five hits with a walk and four strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings in a loss at Citi Field back on Aug. 8 in his major league debut.
The Mets return from their break due to two positive COVID tests, and Porcello was announced as the starter.
- Porcello is 1-3 with a 5.76 ERA on the season.
- He has lost his last two games, going 6.0 innings while allowing 10 hits and 4 earned runs in his last game out.
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Marlins at Mets: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Marlins
- SP Sandy Alcantara (COVID-19) questionable
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
Mets
- SP Michael Wacha (shoulder) questionable
Marlins at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Mets 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline (ML)
The METS (-182) won all four of the meetings last week in Miami before COVID knocked the team offline, and they are 5-1 overall against the Marlins, including five consecutive wins. In the series at Marlins Park from Aug. 17-19, they outscored the Fish 32-13.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The METS (-1.5, +115) are a solid play on the run line against the Marlins (+1.5, -139) in Game 1. As mentioned, they outscored the Marlins 24-10 last weekend in a three-game set. Not only have they won five in a row straight up, but they have also covered the run line in each of those outings. Take advantage.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Mets on the run line would return a net profit of $11.50 with a victory.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 7.5 (-110) is where it’s at here, as the Mets averaged 8.0 runs per game against the Marlins last week in Miami, and they’re averaging a healthy 6.7 runs per game against the Fish in six meetings this season. Remember, this is a seven-inning game with the doubleheader, so don’t get carried away thinking the lower total line is some great bargain. But the way the Mets had been hitting, it’s a solid play. Hopefully the rest doesn’t make their bats sluggish again.
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