The Miami Marlins (47-62) visit the Colorado Rockies (48-61) Friday to start a three-game series at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami took three of four against the New York Mets earlier this week following a four-game losing skid and is 5-5 in its last 10 games.
Colorado is also 5-5 in the past 10 games and has won four of the past six games including two games of a three-game series vs. the Chicago Cubs.
Season series: Marlins lead 2-1.
RHP Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s projected starter. Alcantara is 6-9 with a 3.12 ERA (132 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 22 starts.
- Last outing: No decision in a 3-1 loss, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K Sunday against the New York Yankees.
- 2021 road splits: 5-5 with a 3.71 ERA (63 IP, 26 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB in 11 starts.
RHP German Marquez makes his 23rd start for the Rockies. Marquez is 9-8 with a 3.58 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K Saturday at the San Diego Padres.
- 2021 home splits: 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB in 13 starts.
Marlins at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rockies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Rockies -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Rockies 6, Marlins 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ROCKIES (-170) because Marquez and Colorado have been awesome at home while Alcantara and Miami have struggled on the road.
For instance, Marquez’s impressive home splits come despite him making his home starts at the launching pad of Coors Field. He’s allowed just four home runs this year at Coors, three less than he’s given up on the road, and Marquez has pitched 22 innings more at home.
Furthermore, the Rockies have the highest winning percentage as a home favorite (18-5 overall record) and the Marlins are just 17-26 as a road underdog.
Also, compare Alcantara’s road numbers above to these home splits: 2.58 home ERA, 0.94 home WHIP and a 4.2 K/BB at home with a .555 opponent’s home OPS (.712 opponent’s OPS on the road).
On top of that, according to Pregame.com Colorado’s money line has been steamed up from -143 at open to the current number so “sharp” money is backing the Rockies.
However, I can only “LEAN” to the ROCKIES (-170) for a half unit at this price because it’s too far off the consensus market. Several books are offering Colorado’s money line in the -155 to -160 range.
Perhaps Tipico is ahead of the market or has more liability with the Rockies than other sportsbooks but I cannot ignore the price difference. Hopefully, Tipico is just offering a “sharp” money line because at least I’d feel better about my Colorado “lean”.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES -1.5 (+115) for a tiny wager if at all because all six of Marquez’s wins at home have been by at least 2 runs.
However, I wouldn’t bet Colorado’s run line too heavily because Miami is 26-17 ATS as a road dog and the Rockies are 11-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-107) for light wager for trendy reasons such as these teams being a combined 16-24 O/U with these starters on the mound, Miami’s 19-22-2 O/U record as a road dog and Colorado is 8-15 O/U as a home favorite.
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