The Miami Marlins (5-8) meet the Atlanta Braves (7-8) Saturday for the second game of their three-game series at Truist Park for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta beat Miami 3-0 in the series opener Friday thanks to a game by Braves RHP Kyle Wright who went 6-scoreless IP with 4 H, 1 BB and 11 K.
Season series: Atlanta leads 1-0.
Marlins at Braves projected starters
RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. RHP Ian Anderson
Hernandez (1-1, 4.22 ERA) got his first win Sunday versus the Philadelphia Phillies. He threw 6 IP with 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 5 K in the 11-3 victory.
- 2021 vs. Braves: No-decision in Miami’s 6-4 victory in Atlanta with 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K in 1 start.
- vs. Braves on current roster: 1.77 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .276 wOBA, .226 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.0 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 50 plate appearances (PA).
Anderson (1-1, 6.48 ERA) won at the San Diego Padres last Saturday 5-2 going 5 2/3 IP, allowing 1 ER on 2 H and 1 BB with 7 K.
- 2021 vs. Marlins: 1-1 with. 6.57 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 17 H, 11 BB and 19 K across 3 starts.
- vs. Marlins on current roster: 3.55 FIP with a .312 BA, .366 wOBA, .373 xSLG, 25.6 K% and 85.2 mph EV in 86 PA.
Marlins at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Marlins at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 3, Braves 2
Money line
LEAN MARLINS (+130) because these teams are performing at a similar form entering Saturday so there’s value in betting the team with a plus-money payout.
There’s also a line freeze in the betting market because a vast majority of the action is on the Braves but the oddsmakers haven’t really moved the number. It appears that the sportsbooks are confident in their pricing and are inducing more pro-Atlanta action.
However, the Braves have a much higher ceiling since their lineup could start raking at any time and Miami’s First 5-inning RL is my favorite wager in this game hence the LEAN to the MARLINS (+130).
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Run line/Against the spread
BET 1 unit on the MARLINS +0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RL (-120) because Anderson has struggled versus Miami in his young career whereas Hernandez has very solid pitching peripherals against Atlanta.
Miami’s lineup also ranks 10th in both wRC+ and wOBA versus right-handed pitching (per FanGraphs), ahead of Atlanta’s lineup in both metrics.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-107) because the weather forecast is predicting nearly double-digit mph winds blowing in from centerfield, the Marlins are 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games and the Braves are 0-3-1 O/U in Anderson’s last 4 starts as a favorite.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-107) since roughly 90% of the cash is on the Under (according to Pregame.com) and I hate following the herd in sports betting.
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