The Miami Marlins (17-18) look to improve upon their 15-9 road record when they pay a visit to the Atlanta Braves (24-16) Monday for the first game of a three-game series. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park. We analyze the Marlins-Braves betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Marlins at Braves: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Jose Urena vs. RHP Ian Anderson
Urena will be making his first appearance of the season Monday. He tested positive for COVID-19 in late July and has been at the Marlins’ alternate site since mid-August.
- He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in both 2017 and 2018, but struggled to the tune of a 5.21 ERA in 2019.
- Urena hasn’t had much success against the Braves in his career. He has made 16 appearances (13 starts) and compiled a 6.64 ERA with an ugly 1.5 K:BB and 1.6 HR/9.
Anderson has looked good in his first two starts, allowing just three earned runs across 12 innings against the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
- He has racked up 14 strikeouts against just three walks so far, while inducing an impressive 29 swinging strikes, including 17 in his last outing.
- Anderson made 26 minor league starts in 2019, 21 of which came at Double-A. In all, he recorded a 3.38 ERA, with an 11.4 K/9, but an inflated 4.3 BB/9. He was particularly wild upon his promotion to Triple-A, walking 18 batters in 24 2/3 innings (6.6 BB/9).
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Marlins at Braves: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Marlins
- OF Harold Ramirez (hamstring) out
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
Braves
- 2B Ozzie Albies (wrist) out
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Marlins at Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 7, Marlins 3
Moneyline (ML)
- Braves (-209)
- Marlins (+185)
This is a high price to pay for a starter with just two big league games under his belt, but Anderson has been impressive, and the Atlanta offense has been swinging the bat exceptionally well lately, with 65 runs in their last eight games.
Urena isn’t likely to work especially deep into the game in his very first start of the season. When he leaves, he’ll be turning things over to a relief corps that is bottom two in the league in both FIP and K%. Back the BRAVES (-209).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Marlins +1.5 (-121)
- Braves -1.5 (+100)
The run line presents solid value, as the hot Atlanta bats stand a strong chance of having another good day, and winning by at least two runs. Side with the BRAVES -1.5 (+100).
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 9 (-110)
- Under 9 (-110)
The Over is 6-0-2 in the Braves last eight games, and they can be expected to put some runs on the board against Urena and a weak Miami bullpen. On the other side, Anderson has been great in his first two starts, but does have a history of control problems, and can’t be expected to completely shut down the Miami offense.
The Marlins should be able to get a few runs across, so a slight lean to the OVER 9 (-110) is the recommendation for this contest.
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