The Miami Heat (41-24) visit the Denver Nuggets (43-22) Saturday in the Orlando bubble for a 1:00 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Heat-Nuggets sports betting odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Heat at Nuggets: Key Injuries
Nuggets
- SG Will Barton (knee) questionable
- SG Gary Harris Jr. (out) out
- PG Jamal Murray (hamstring) questionable
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Heat at Nuggets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated 10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 111, Nuggets 104
Moneyline (ML)
The Nuggets thumped the Heat, 109-89, in their first meeting this season back on Nov. 5. But, I give Miami the slight edge in this matchup because they are an elite offensive team and Denver is above-average at offense and defense but not elite at either.
The Heat have the best three-point percentage in the NBA, sixth-highest offensive rating and are third at both effective field goal % and free throw attempts per field goal attempts. Miami have aggressive playmakers that attack the basket — SF Jimmy Butler — and snipers from deep— SF Duncan Robinson, SF Jae Crowder and SG Tyler Herro.
When it comes to defending the three, both teams are tied for eighth in opponent’s three-point %, but Denver gives up the 28th most threes per game. If they don’t close out better than that on Miami’s shooters, they are going to be buried by threes.
Injuries in Denver’s backcourt could be a factor as well. Both Murray and Barton are listed as questionable, and if they play how effective will they be and will they be on a minute-restriction? In the first Heat-Nuggets game this season, Murray led the Nuggets in points and in rebounds.
BET THE HEAT (-106) on the moneyline. New to sports betting? A $106 bet on Miami earns a profit of $100 if the Heat win outright.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
PASS on an ATS wager in Heat-Nuggets, which has the Nuggets at -1 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
We are BETTING THE OVER 210.5 (-110). Our moneyline handicap mentions the Heat lighting it up from three and Miami’s Over/Under record is 39-25-1 this season. Also, the Heat-Nuggets is an early tip-off and their combined Over/Under record in day games is 9-4 this season.
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