The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics tip-off Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Finals series Thursday at 7 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. Below, we analyze the Heat-Celtics Game 2 betting odds and lines, with NBA picks and best bets.
Series: Miami leads 1-0.
Heat vs. Celtics: Key injuries
Celtics
- SF Gordon Hayward (ankle) doubtful
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Heat vs. Celtics: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 106, Celtics 100
Money line (ML)
The Heat (+120) and the Celtics (-143) both delivered blows in Miami’s 117-114 Game 1 overtime win. Boston jumped out to an 8-point lead after the first quarter and Miami countered with a plus-8 second quarter.
The Celtics came out strong in the second half and built a 12-point lead heading into the fourth. The Heat stormed back in the fourth to send the game to overtime.
While Boston entered the series as a narrow favorite, Miami’s Game 1 performance should have them as the betting favorite entering the second game of the series. The Celtics shot their regular-season average from three (36%) but were outshot from deep by the Heat (44% from three).
There are two major reasons for that; Miami shot the second-highest percentage from deep in the regular season (38%) and the Heat exploited Boston’s lack of size to create good looks. The Heat outscored the Celtics in the paint 48-26. It’s natural for the defense to protect the paint more if they are getting bullied inside.
The HEAT (+120) are the better side so let’s splash a half-unit on them to win outright.
New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Heat (+120) pays a $60 profit if Miami upsets Boston.
Line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Heat +2.5 (-110) are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, as Erik Spoelstra has coached better than Brad Stevens in a majority of the previous 10 Heat-Celtics games. The Celtics (-2.5, -110) have the more talented roster in recent years but currently, the talent discrepancy is close to nonexistent.
In fact, I’d argue with Bam Adebayo’s development, the early maturation of rookie SG Tyler Herro and Miami’s acquisition of SF Jae Crowder, the Heat are the more talented team. The absence of SF Gordon Hayward is proving to be a factor for the Celtics and he’s considered “doubtful” for Game 2.
All that being said, Jayson Tatum is the best player in the series and if there’s an edge on either side, it’s slight. Buy a half-point and get the HEAT +3 (-121) on the alternate spread.
It’s insurance on our money line wager and a single possession cushion could pay dividends. A $121 wager on the Heat +3 (-121) returns a $100 profit if Miami wins or loses by two or fewer points.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean Under 209.5 (-110) but will PASS THE TOTAL because I don’t have the same feel for it as the sides. Each team’s pace in Game 1 was 90.0 and was slower than their below-average regular-season pace compared to the league.
Tatum and Heat PG Goran Dragic are ballin’ and there are just too many good offensive players out there for me to play Under 209.5.
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