Miami Heat at Orlando Magic odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Orlando Magic sports betting odds and lines, with NBA matchup analysis, picks and best bets.

The Miami Heat (32-15) take an in-state road trip Saturday to play the Orlando Magic (21-27) at Amway Center at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze Heat-Magic odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.


Place a legal sports bet on this NBA action or other games at BetMGM.


Heat at Magic: Key injuries

Heat

  • PG Kendrick Nunn (Achilles) probable
  • SF Justise Winslow (back) out

Magic

  • SG Evan Fournier (back) questionable
  • SF Jonathan Issac (knee) out
  • PG D.J. Augustin (knee) out
  • PF Al-Farouq Aminu (knee) out

Heat at Magic: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Magic 102, Heat 97

Moneyline (ML)

The Heat (-128) have been up-and-down over the past four games—going 2-2 outright and 1-3 against the spread—and the Magic (+105) have been awful lately losing six out of eight games straight up and against the spread. Orlando is really well-rested with their last game being a 113-92 loss to the Heat Monday, and they have a 4-2 record when playing with a rest advantage. Conversely, the Heat are 5-8 with a minus-4.5 margin of victory when having a rest disadvantage.

There are a few other reasons why this is a good spot for the Magic. Miami is 5-5 overall as an away favorite with a minus-4.7 ATS margin. Also, Miami has a 1-2-1 ATS record when laying 1-2.5 points and Orlando is 4-0 ATS when getting 1-2.5 points. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings with Orlando and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. I’m applying all of these ATS trends to my Heat-Magic moneyline handicap because the number is so short (+/- 1.5 points) that they can be used in a game BetMGM is essentially calling a coin flip.

BET MAGIC (+105) on the moneyline.

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

There isn’t much value in the line either way so I’ll PASS on the AGAINST THE SPREAD wager in Heat-Magic. I’ll waive the Magic +1.5 (-106) as insurance and just predict the straight-up upset.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and Orlando has the highest percentage of Unders thus far with a 19-27-2 O/U record. Plus, the Magic have a 7-16-1 O/U record as a home team, including a 2-6-1 O/U record as a home dog.

The under very much correlates with the Magic winning outright as Miami’s defense matches up well against Orlando’s offense. The Magic are ranked 29th and 28th in field-goal percentage and 3-point %, going against a Heat team ranked seventh in opponent FG% and first in opponent 3-point percentage.

BET UNDER 207.5 (-110).

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