The Charlotte Hornets (28-25) host the Miami Heat (33-20) Saturday at Spectrum Center for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hornets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami snapped a three-game losing skid by clobbering the Spurs in San Antonio 112-95, easily covering as an 8-point favorite. The Heat are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last two weeks.
Charlotte also enters on a three-game losing streak including a 102-101 loss at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday. The Hornets are 2-5 SU and ATS across the last 14 days.
The Heat torched the Hornets 114-99 as 6.5-point favorites Oct. 29 in their first meeting this season. Miami All-Star F Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 32 points on 12-for-19 shooting with 10 rebounds and 5 assists.
Heat at Hornets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:57 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Hornets +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread: Heat -3.5 (-107) | Hornets +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Hornets key injuries
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (toe) probable
- SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable
- SF Max Strus (quadriceps) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
Hornets
- SF Jalen McDaniels (ankle) out
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Heat at Hornets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 117, Hornets 107
Money line
BET the HEAT (-155) for 1 unit because Miami beats up on bad defenses and on fatigued teams.
The Heat are 15-4 SU versus teams in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-9.3 adjusted net rating (ranked sixth), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
On top of that, Charlotte struggles with tough defenses and Miami is eight in defensive rating. The Hornets are 7-14 SU versus top-10 defenses with a minus-5.5 adjusted net rating (ranked 22nd), per CTG.
Miami also dominates teams when playing with a rest advantage and Charlotte is terrible when playing with no rest. The Heat are 9-3 SU with a rest advantage (plus-10.1 margin of victory) and the Hornets are 1-8 SU on the second of a back-to-back.
For the record, this is near the top of my price range for Miami’s money line (ML). If the Heat’s ML goes north of -165 then I’d just lay the points with Miami.
BET the HEAT (-155).
Against the spread
PASS.
However, if Miami’s ML gets any higher I’d be comfortable laying points with the Heat -3.5 (-107) in this spot considering how well they perform versus fatigued teams and how poorly the Hornets perform with no rest.
However, Charlotte is 9-2 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record and 4-0 ATS when getting 3-4.5 points so I could see an argument for the Hornets covering here.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 227.5 (-110) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer Miami outright.
This Heat-Hornets total has been steamed up from a 224-point opener and more than 80% of the action is on the Over, according to Pregame.com.
Charlotte has also gotten locked up in its past three games, all against top-10 defenses. The Hornets are 29th in both offensive rating and effective field goal shooting over their last three games.
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