The Miami Heat (37-31) face the Boston Celtics (35-33) in their second of a back-to-back Tuesday at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Celtics odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Miami held off Boston to win 130-124 Sunday as the Celtics were down as many as 26 points before cutting the deficit down to six points with a few minutes left in the fourth.
It was the Heat’s second straight win and fifth out of their last six games (4-1-1 against the spread). Miami is sixth in the East, 2 games in front of Boston and seeds 7-10 participate in the playoff play-in tournament.
Boston is limping down the stretch, losing two straight, three of four and six of the last nine games (2-7 ATS), with the three wins all coming against sub-.500 teams.
This is the regular-season rubber match between these two teams as the road team has won and covered the first two.
Heat at Celtics: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Celtics +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Heat -1.5 (-115) | Celtics +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Heat at Celtics: Key injuries
Heat
- SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out
Celtics
- C Robert Williams (toe) doubtful
- SF Jaylen Brown (knee) out
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Heat at Celtics: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 119, Celtics 112
Money line (ML)
BET the HEAT (-125) for 1 unit because the market is overemphasizing the zig-zag theory, perhaps overlooking these teams’ recent forms and expecting Jayson Tatum to put the Celtics (+105) on his back in a relatively must-win game.
For instance, they’ve had to beat the same team in consecutive games so most bettors will automatically bet against the team that just won, as known as the “zig-zag” theory.
However, Miami is rounding into the team that represented the East in the NBA Finals last season, and Boston has struggled immensely in the last several games.
Given their situation, the Celtics’ recent losses to the Chicago Bulls, by 22 points, the Oklahoma City Thunder and a banged-up Charlotte Hornets are embarrassing.
Finally, Tatum is an All-NBA caliber wing, no one is arguing that, but Jimmy Butler is better and has played better than Tatum when they’ve met.
In their seven career head-to-head meetings, Butler’s team is 5-2, and he’s outscoring Tatum 24.4-19.3 points per game.
Tatum might outscore Butler in this meeting and play fabulous tonight, but in a must-win for both teams, I’ll roll with Butler and the HEAT (-125).
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS and stick with the money line unless the Heat become -140 or greater favorites then I’d lay the points with Miami.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 224.5 (-115) for a quarter unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the market has already steamed the total up 2 points from the 222.5-point opener.
Miami’s offense is starting to come together and hit shots (the Heat have scored 121 or more points in four of their last five games) and Boston has been playing matador defense lately (allowing 129 or more points in four of the past five).
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