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The Miami Dolphins (5-6) ring in the holidays against the Green Bay Packers (8-3) with a Thanksgiving Day game. Kickoff Thursday from Lambeau Field is set for 8:20 p.m. EST (NBC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Dolphins vs. Packers odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Phins have won 3 straight after a 34-15 win over the New England Patriots as 7.5-point favorites. QB Tua Tagovailoa is rounding into form as he threw for 317 yards and 4 TDs. WR Jaylen Waddle (8-144-1) and TE Jonnu Smith (9-87-1) balled out in the victory.
The Packers have won 2 straight and 6 of 7 games after a 38-10 beatdown of the beat-up San Francisco 49ers. They were 6-point faves in that one. RB Josh Jacobs controlled the game with 26 carries for 106 yards and 3 TDs. QB Jordan Love didn’t have to do a whole lot as he was 13-for-23 for 163 yards and 2 scores.
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Dolphins at Packers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated at Wednesday at 6:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Packers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +3.5 (-115) | Packers -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Dolphins at Packers key injuries
Dolphins
- OT Terron Armstead (knee) questionable
- LB Tyus Bowser (knee, calf) out
- CB Kendall Fuller (concussion) out
Packers
- CB Jaire Alexander (knee) out
- LB Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring) out
- WR Romeo Doubs (concussion) out
- C Josh Myers (pectoral) questionable
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Dolphins at Packers picks and predictions
Prediction
Packers 24, Dolphins 20
Moneyline
It’s slated to be 27 degrees for this game, and Miami is a warm-weather team that will likely flounder in the cold. However, -185 is too steep for me.
JOSH JACOBS OVER 74.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110) is a no-brainer for me. He has hit this mark in 5 straight games, and the cold weather will give Green Bay the advantage to run some clock.
Against the spread
Go easy here, and I would consider paying to scale it back to -2.5 (-150), but I will take the PACKERS -3.5 (-105). The Pack have gone 1-4 ATS over the last 5 games, and the Dolphins’ offense has looked good. But this weather is a different animal.
Over/Under
The Packers are 4-5-1 O/U in the last 10 games, and the Dolphins are 5-5. These teams last met in 2022 in Miami, and the Under hit with the Pack winning 26-20. The last time Miami was in Lambeau was 2018 and it was a 31-12 Packers victory with an Under cash.
I like the UNDER 47.5 (-105).
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