The No. 7 seed Minnesota Timberwolves (1-2) host the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (2-1) Saturday at Target Center for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Memphis rallied from a 26-point deficit for a stunning 104-95 victory at Minnesota in Game 3 Thursday. The Grizzlies neutralized T-wolves All-Star C Karl-Anthony Towns, holding him to just 8 points on 4 shot attempts and Memphis outperformed Minnesota in three of the “four factors” in the win.
Grizzlies SG Desmond Bane and PF Brandon Clarke stepped up in Game 3. Bane scored a game-high 26 points, including 7-for-15 from 3-point land, and Clarke added 20 points on 66.7% shooting (6-for-9) with 8 rebounds off the bench.
Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Grizzlies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Timberwolves +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-115) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries
Grizzlies
- SF Dillon Brooks (foot) questionable
Timberwolves
- None
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Grizzlies at Timberwolves picks and predictions
Prediction
Grizzlies 117, Timberwolves 112
Money line
LEAN GRIZZLIES (-145) since their ML is only 30 cents on the dollar more expensive than their spread.
But I prefer Memphis laying the points at a cheaper price point because these teams have a similar identity and the Grizzlies are way more efficient.
Both teams like to get out in transition by forcing turnovers or off of live rebounds. However, Memphis is outexecuting Minnesota in all “four factors” in this series.
It seems as though Minnesota and Towns have no answer for the Grizzlies’ adjustment of sitting C Steven Adams and playing more athletic bigs who can stay in front of Towns on the perimeter. KAT has been getting into foul trouble early and has been a non-factor offensively in Games 2 and 3.
Furthermore, this Minnesota team feels similar to last season’s Memphis playoff team. The Grizzlies made last postseason via the play-in tourney and stole Game 1 versus the Utah Jazz before losing the next 4 games. I think the T-wolves have a similar fate in these playoffs.
It’s only a LEAN GRIZZLIES (-145) because I’m confident enough in them to lay the points at a cheaper price.
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Against the spread
BET GRIZZLIES -2.5 (-115) based on the previous analysis and this is a much more profitable spot for Memphis.
The Grizzlies are 6-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 visits to Minnesota and 13-7 ATS as road favorites with a plus-3.1 ATS margin. While the T-wolves are 3-10 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs and 20-23-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record.
The GRIZZLIES LAYING THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 232.5 (-110), if at all, because this Grizzlies-Timberwolves is by far the fastest-paced series in the playoffs, Memphis has the highest free-throw attempt rate and Minnesota has the 4th-highest 3-point attempt rate.
However, this total still feels too high because neither team plays good half-court offense and the Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
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