The Memphis Grizzlies (1-1) head to Target Center Friday for Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Memphis rallied back from a Game 1 upset to blast Minnesota 124-96 in Game 2 Tuesday. The Grizzlies outscored the T-Wolves in all four quarters and outperformed them in three of the “four factors”.
Minnesota is 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) at home versus Memphis this season. The total is 3-3 Over/Under (O/U) in the six Grizzlies-Timberwolves meetings from the regular season and playoffs.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA April 21 playoff breakdown
Grizzlies at Timberwolves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Grizzlies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Timberwolves +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread: Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 236.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Grizzlies at Timberwolves key injuries
Grizzlies
- None
Timberwolves
- None
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Grizzlies at Timberwolves picks and predictions
Prediction
Grizzlies 119, Timberwolves 115
Money line
GIMME the GRIZZLIES (-140) because their head coach, Taylor Jenkins, made a crucial adjustment in Game 2 by sitting big Steven Adams and using more athletic bigs such as Jarren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman Sr. to defend Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns.
Even though Adams is a big reason why Memphis was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, the Grizzlies can still outrebound the T-Wolves with Adams off the floor. Memphis nearly tripled Minnesota’s rebounding rate in Game 2 and the Grizzlies have a strength-on-weakness edge on the offensive glass.
Memphis was first in both offensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game (PPG) during the regular season, while Minnesota was 28th in defensive rebounding rate and 25th in second-chance PPG allowed.
The T-Wolves also try to force turnovers that lead to easy baskets but the Grizzlies have a good offensive turnover rate and allow the third-fewest points off of turnovers per game.
Now that Jenkins has found a frontcourt solution that can frustrate KAT, the gap between Memphis’s and Minnesota’s backcourt is wider than the gap between KAT and the Grizzlies’ bigs.
BET the GRIZZLIES (-140) to take Game 3.
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Against the spread
PASS because Memphis’s ML is only 28 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) and Game 3 most likely will be decided by the team that executes better down the stretch. It would be brutal if Memphis eked past Minnesota but the Timberwolves cashed.
However, the Grizzlies are 5-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Minnesota while the T-Wolves are 3-9 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.
If we like Memphis to win outright then the Grizzlies -2.5 (-112) probably gets there but let’s stick with the ML.
Over/Under
PASS.
I “lean” to the Over 236.5 (-115) because the T-Wolves’ role players should knock down more shots now that this series is back in Minnesota. And Memphis’s aggressive and fast-paced style is a nightmare matchup for Minnesota’s defense.
That said, the total has been steamed down by sharp line movement and the professionals seem to be betting the Under 236.5 (-107) while the public is backing the Over. It’s obvious which side we’d prefer to be on even though the Over makes a lot of basketball sense.
PASS.
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