The Golden State Warriors (38-33) host the Memphis Grizzlies (38-33) Sunday in a pivotal regular-season finale at Chase Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Grizzlies-Warriors odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Whoever takes this game will become the 8-seed in the Western Conference play-in tournament, which gives that team two opportunities to clinch a playoff berth.
Both teams enter on five-game win streaks. Each team won Friday despite resting numerous key contributors in anticipation of this game.
Two of Golden State’s five recent wins came against the top-two teams in the West with a win over the Utah Jazz Monday then the Phoenix Suns the next night.
Memphis’ five-game winning streak is less impressive and it covered the spread in just two of those contests, but the Grizzlies are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games as underdogs.
These teams split a back-to-back March 19 and 20 but the NBA’s leading scorer in Warriors PG Stephen Curry (31.8 points per game) missed both meetings.
Grizzlies at Warriors: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Warriors -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Grizzlies +4 (-110) | Warriors -4 (-110)
- Over/Under: 228.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Grizzlies at Warriors: Key injuries
Grizzlies
- SG Grayson Allen (abdomen) out
Warriors
- SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (wrist) out
- SG Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) out
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Grizzlies at Warriors: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Grizzlies 118, Warriors 114
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the GRIZZLIES (+145) for a quarter unit if at all because Memphis holds edges in ball security and rebounding.
The Grizzlies have the fifth-highest offensive rebounding rate and score the most second-chance points per game. The Warriors are 21st in defensive rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most second-chance points per game.
Also, Golden State is 24th in turnover rate and surrenders the sixth-most points off of turnovers per game whereas Memphis has the eighth-best defensive turnover rate in the NBA.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the GRIZZLIES +4 (-110) heavier than or instead of their money line since Memphis has the third-highest cover rate on the season and covered the spread in six of its last seven games as a road underdog.
Furthermore, this is a better spot for the Grizzlies who are 9-5 ATS in road games vs. teams with a winning record and 8-4 ATS when spotted between 3-4.5 points while the Warriors are just 2-5 ATS when laying that many points.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 228.5 (-110) for a half unit because both teams play at a top-10 fastest pace and both offenses have reasons to be confident.
The Grizzlies’ highly aggressive defense, rebounding efforts and Golden State’s second-worst defensive FTA/FG rate should equal some easy buckets; however, Memphis has a slightly below-average 3-point defense and that’s not going to cut it against the 3-point GOAT in a game as important as this one.
I’m expecting a big game out of Curry but for the Grizzlies to pull it out late.
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