The Memphis Grizzlies (31-16) travel to the Mile High City Friday to play the Denver Nuggets (23-20) at the Ball Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Memphis (+6.5) got drubbed 126-114 at the Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday for its second loss in the past three games. But, the Grizzlies have been red-hot this month.
In January, Memphis is 8-2 straight-up (SU) and 8-2 against the spread (ATS) with a plus.6-7 adjusted net rating (ranked sixth) and a plus-5.4 ATS margin (ranked fourth), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Denver (-8.5) squeaked past the Los Angeles Clippers 130-128 in overtime Wednesday for its third win in the past three games.
The Nuggets are 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS this month with a plus-5.8 adjusted net rating (ranked seventh) and a plus-0.9 ATS margin (ranked 13th), per CTG.
The Grizzlies are 2-0 SU and ATS versus the Nuggets this season, both in Memphis and five of their past six meetings have gone Under the total, including three straight.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA January 21 breakdown
Grizzlies at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Grizzlies +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Nuggets -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +3.5 (-110) | Nuggets -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Grizzlies at Nuggets key injuries
Grizzlies
- SF Kyle Anderson (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Desmond Bane (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Dillon Brooks (ankle) out
- PG Tyus Jones (health and safety protocols) out
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF JaMychal Green (health and safety protocols) out
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Grizzlies at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 118, Grizzlies 110
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Nuggets (-165) since this is on the fringe of my price range, and I’d much rather have a Nuggets SU ticket than sweat Denver covering the spread.
Against the spread
BET the NUGGETS -3.5 (-110) for 1 unit because it feels like the sportsbooks are laying a trap with the Grizzlies +3.5 (-110).
Most of the market is hammering Memphis plus the points since the Grizzlies have been one of the best teams with an MVP candidate (Ja Morant). Also, most of the trends point to Memphis being the right side.
And despite the lopsided pro-Grizzlies action, there’s a line freeze and oddsmakers haven’t moved this number from the opener.
However, I would wait closer to tip-off before placing a wager since money is pouring on Memphis, and eventually the oddsmakers will respond accordingly.
More importantly, Denver has the reigning MVP—Nikola Jokic—who’s arguably playing better this season and has balled out in recent meetings with Memphis big Steven Adams.
For instance, Jokic is averaging 30.4 points per game (PPG) on 61.3% shooting (44.9% from 3-point land) with 9.9 rebounds and 7.9 assists in his last 10 games versus Adams.
Also, Memphis is top-five in both second-chance PPG and fast-break PPG. But, Denver’s defense ranks first in second-chance PPG allowed and ninth in fast-break PPG allowed.
BET the NUGGETS -3.5 (-110).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 224.5 (-107) for a one-third unit because I’m much more confident in the Nuggets winning SU than the total.
But, Denver can get hot from deep, and Memphis tends to get a little lost when playing perimeter defense. The Nuggets are ninth in 3-point attempt rate, and the Grizzlies are 26th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage.
Plus both teams play more to the Over slightly in their respective location-based splits. Memphis is 10-9-2 O/U in away games and Denver is 11-9 O/U in home games.
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