The Memphis Grizzlies (48-22) head down to the Big Peach Friday for a cross-conference showdown with the Atlanta Hawks (34-35). Tip-off at State Farm Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Memphis is 5-1 straight up (SU) but 3-3 against the spread (ATS) over the past two weeks with the latest being a 135-102 beatdown of the Pacers Tuesday in Indiana, easily covering as a 6.5-point road favorite.
Atlanta had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 116-106 loss to the Hornets Wednesday in Charlotte as a 1-point road favorite. The Hawks have lost seven straight ATS.
The Hawks crushed the Grizzlies 132-100 in Memphis Nov. 26 but Grizzlies All-Star G Ja Morant exited in the first quarter with an ankle injury. Atlanta All-Star G Trae Young scored a game-high 31 points on 75.0% shooting (3-for-4 from behind the arc).
Grizzlies at Hawks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Grizzlies -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Hawks +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Against the spread: Grizzlies -5.5 (-107) | Hawks +5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 236.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Grizzlies at Hawks key injuries
Grizzlies
- PG Ja Morant (back) questionable
Hawks
- PF John Collins (finger) out
- SF Danilo Gallinari (biceps) questionable
- PG Trae Young (quad) questionable
[tipico]
Grizzlies at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Hawks 121, Grizzlies 113
Money line
Slight LEAN to the HAWKS (+175) because of how well they perform at home against quality competition. The Grizzlies are getting a bunch of love in the betting market and have a top-5 net rating.
Atlanta is 9-2 SU versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with a plus-6.4 adjusted net rating (ranked fourth) and a plus-5.4 ATS margin (ranked third) according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
We are also seeing some reverse line movement in Atlanta’s direction. Roughly 80% of the cash is on the Grizzlies but Memphis has been lowered from a -250 ML favorite on the opener according to Pregame.com. It’s a red flag when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
The Hawks are an above-average rebounding team and have the best offensive turnover rate in the NBA. Two of Memphis’s paths to victory this season have been getting easy buckets off turnovers and by crashing the glass.
If Atlanta takes care of the rock and finishes defensive possessions with rebounds then the HAWKS (+175) should cash. It’s only a lean and not a sprinkle on Atlanta’s ML since Trae’s official game status is pending.
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Against the spread
BET HAWKS +5.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the aforementioned logic and because Atlanta struggles in tight games.
The Hawks are just 15-17 SU in the “clutch” with a minus-13.1 net rating. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play. Just taking Atlanta’s ML could be costly if the Hawks choke this game away.
The HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS because I am much more confident in the Atlanta sides than the total in this contest. Also, these teams play at the opposite pace and Atlanta is a completely different team with Trae off the floor.
For what it’s worth, a vast majority of the cash is on the Over (per Pregame.com) so I’d prefer to fade the market and take the Under 236.5 (-115).
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