The disclaimer which has to be mentioned at the start of every reaction to the hire of a new head coach is that outcomes aren’t guaranteed.
Pete Carroll was not viewed as a great hire by USC 20 years ago. That turned out pretty well for the Trojans.
Tom Herman was viewed as a great hire for Texas. The Longhorns have zero Big 12 championships and zero 11-win seasons since he arrived in Austin. Texas has lost at least four games in all three of Herman’s seasons on the job.
Ed Orgeron just led LSU to one of the greatest seasons in college football history. I buried LSU and athletic director Joe Alleva for making that hire a few years ago. LSU got the last laugh.
These things often work out very differently from what pundits and commentators (myself very much included) expect. We always need to say that and acknowledge it when new head coaches are hired.
That having been said: Any Big Ten school other than Michigan State should feel relatively good about Mel Tucker leaving the Colorado Buffaloes to go to East Lansing as Mark Dantonio’s successor.
Yes, Tucker could turn out to be great. He could hire a great offensive coordinator, which — for any defensive specialist, as Tucker is — acquires considerable importance for anyone in his position. Yet, if you’re a Wisconsin fan, or an Ohio State fan, or a Michigan fan, or a Penn State fan, or an Iowa fan, are you quaking in your boots that Mel Tucker is reportedly coming to Michigan State (with the deal not having been formally announced, it should be noted)?
I would highly doubt it.
Tucker was Kirby Smart’s lieutenant at Georgia and did great work in leading the Bulldogs’ defense to a national championship game appearance. He obviously has solid credentials. Yet, as a head coach, he is entirely unproven. He had only one year at Colorado, so his grade is not a “bad” one so much as it is incomplete. Yet, in that one year, he was hardly overwhelming. Colorado went 5-7.
Maybe the Buffaloes were ready to rise in 2020. We will never know. Yet, in the absence of being able to see Year 2 for Tucker in Boulder, we can’t definitively say, “Wow, Tucker has really made a mark as a head coach.” He isn’t a flawed candidate, but he is an unproven one.
Luke Fickell was a proven candidate based on his work in Cincinnati. Pat Narduzzi was less proven, but at least somewhat proven.
Michigan State probably could have done a lot worse than Mel Tucker… but it also could have done a lot better. Wisconsin fans, on balance, should be happy today.