The Green Bay Packers went 13-3 in the 2020 NFL regular season and finished first in the NFC for a bye into the Divisional Round. The Packers won their final six games of the regular season to seal a second straight NFC North title. Below, I make the case for the Packers as my prediction to win the 2021 Super Bowl, along with other NFL playoff picks and best bets.
Green Bay Packers year in review
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is BetMGM‘s favorite for the AP MVP award with odds of -3500 representing a 97.22% win probability. The recently turned 37-year-old enjoyed a resurgent season and finished with a 70.7-percent completion percentage, 4,299 passing yards and 48 passing touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. His completion percentage, touchdown total and 121.5 quarterback rating were best in the league.
Rodgers received plenty of help. RB Aaron Jones had 1,459 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns in 14 games. WR Davante Adams had 115 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 TDs and TE Robert Tonyan broke out with 11 TDs on 52 total catches.
The defense came and went, and finished 17th by Football Outsiders’ total DVOA. The Packers were 14th in opponent yards per play allowed, but they were just 20th by ESPN’s Team Pass Rush Win Rate.
From a betting standpoint, the Packers went 10-6 against the spread and covered by 3.8 points per game while winning by an average of 8.8 PPG. They were 9-7 against the Over/Under and topped projections by 4.1 PPG. With home-field advantage secured through the NFC playoffs, the Packers can build on their 5-3 ATS record at Lambeau Field from the regular season. Games at Lambeau went 9-7 against the O/U.
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Why the Green Bay Packers will win the 2021 Super Bowl
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 1:20 p.m. ET.
The Packers trail only the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs (+240) with odds of +550 to win Super Bowl LV. They’re my pick at the onset of the playoffs with a $10 bet returning a profit of $55.
I never like betting a favorite for futures and better than double the value for the No. 1 seed from the NFC is extremely attractive.
Rodgers, a two-time MVP winner and Super Bowl XLV champion, is the only QB in the NFL who can match Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ throwing ability. The Packers have the superior running back in Jones, and Adams would be the best pass-catcher on the field in a Packers-Chiefs Super Bowl.
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Packers Wire:
- Where Packers players ranked in final stats of 2020
- Hindsight favors decision to draft QB Jordan Love
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