The rebuilding Rockets have been close to a statement victory in recent days, even taking Phoenix down to the final possession on Monday. Two nights later, Houston will have a new opportunity when another probable Western Conference playoff team visits Toyota Center.
Led by superstar guard Luka Doncic, Dallas will not make it easy. The Mavericks enter Wednesday’s game playing some of their best basketball of the 2020-21 season, with five straight victories by an average margin of 13.8 points per game. That includes an impressive 111-103 victory on Monday versus Utah, which has the NBA’s best overall record.
Though Houston shouldn’t be a tough matchup on paper, the Mavs have every incentive to avoid taking the Rockets lightly. At No. 7 in the West standings, Dallas is just two games back of Portland for the No. 6 spot — which is the final confirmed seed for the 2021 playoffs. Teams from No. 7 through No. 10 are subject to the new play-in tournament.
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The lines, courtesy of BetMGM
- Point spread: Rockets +11.5 (-110), Mavericks -11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Rockets +475/Mavs -650
- Over-under: 221.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
- Player O/U Scoring Props: TBD
Place your legal, online sports bets in CO, IN, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, and WV at BetMGM.
Both teams have a lengthy injury report. John Wall (left knee effusion) is questionable to return after missing the last four games, while Avery Bradley is probable with right knee soreness. As expected, Danuel House Jr. (right ankle), David Nwaba (right wrist), Dante Exum (right calf) and Eric Gordon (right groin) remain sidelined by longer-term injuries.
As for the Mavs, big man Kristaps Porzingis (right wrist sprain) is questionable for Wednesday, as are Maxi Kleber (right lower leg soreness) and Trey Burke (left calf strain). Per head coach Rick Carlisle, Porzingis is trending toward playing in Houston. JJ Redick (right heel soreness), Willie Cauley-Stein (health and safety protocols), and Tyrell Terry (personal reasons) are all listed as out.
If the questionable players are available, Dallas is expected to start its regular lineup of Luka Doncic, Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kleber and Porzingis. Meanwhile, if Wall returns, Houston could start Wall, Kevin Porter Jr., Sterling Brown, Jae’Sean Tate and Christian Wood.
Advice and prediction
Wednesday’s game is the third and final meeting between the Texas rivals this season. The Mavericks won the first meeting on Jan. 4 in Houston, but the Rockets returned the favor with a 25-point blowout at Dallas on Jan. 23. This final matchup was rescheduled from Feb. 19 due to the Texas winter storm, which caused widespread power outages.
As for today, the line (minus-11.5) isn’t reflecting Houston’s improved play in recent weeks. The Mavs are better and should win, but just like versus Phoenix, there’s value on the Rockets at such a large number.
Prediction: 120-113, Mavs
Get more betting analysis and predictions at Sportsbook Wire.
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