This is the online version of our daily newsletter, The Morning Win. Subscribe to get irreverent and incisive sports stories, delivered to your mailbox every morning. Chris Korman is filling in for Andy Nesbitt.
Yesterday, as I scrolled ESPN’s headlines to find news from what has been a rather tame Super Bowl week, one phrase jumped out.
“Stephen A.: Matthew Stafford can’t afford loss to Burrow”
Mostly what I thought at first was that Stafford could probably afford it just fine, as he has made close to $250 million in football alone. But then I realized that this was a debate about Matthew Stafford’s ~*~legacy~*~.
The rant that followed, after I reluctantly pressed play on the video, was typical Stephen A.: “The bottom line is this … ” And then a brief recitation of Stafford’s 12 years in Detroit, including a tossing aside of the idea that we should give him a break because, well, he played in Detroit, and then a breakdown of Stafford’s performances relative to opposing QBs in these playoffs.
The closing thought: That somehow Stafford is under extreme pressure because he’s got to face Joe Burrow, who is “a bad brother … something special.”
Huh.
If Burrow and the Bengals hadn’t made it here, Stafford would have faced the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. If not the Chiefs, then perhaps the Bills and Josh Allen. There’s a dimension out there in which the Ravens don’t suffer 127 injuries this season and they make it to this game and Stafford faces Lamar Jackson.
Chances are, Stafford was going to face a really good QB either way.
And, chance are, that how we think about Matthew Stafford — who has already thrown 6,825 regular-season passes — won’t change all that much based on what happens Sunday.
Think about Nick Foles.
You just thought about an extremely limited backup QB prone to hot streaks, one of which coincided with a Super Bowl against Tom Brady, which was won in part by a cool trick play.
You did not think to yourself: Ahhh, yes, Nick Foles, ultimate competitor. Makes every throw. Warrior. Leader. Legend of the game!
(Unless you are from Philly, and then you just walk around thinking that all the time.)
It is interesting to think about Stafford and Burrow because of their similar career trajectories: Both No. 1 draft picks who paired with star receivers to help resuscitate broken franchises.
Like Burrow, Stafford dealt with injury as a rookie. But he also missed most of his second season before helping the Lions to a 10-6 record in his third year. That team lost in the Wild Card round to Drew Brees and the Saints, despite Stafford connecting with Calvin Johnson for 12 catches and 211 yards.
The Lions, who haven’t won a playoff game since the 1991 season, went back to irrelevancy and only made the playoffs twice more with Stafford. You could argue he didn’t do enough to elevate those teams but you could also take the time to go look at those rosters and realize how putrid they were.
Burrow is in the Super Bowl in his second year, and it’s been a magical run but nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. If he can continue to drag a Bengals team with no offensive line and a remarkably average defense to deep playoff runs year after year then we’re talking about one of the better QBs ever.
Even if that doesn’t happen we’re still going to remember the moxie from these last few months, the pinpoint throws that don’t look like they’ll get to where they need to go but do, the smoldering confidence. And we’ll evaluate him against whatever backdrop the Bengals give him, because it’s a team sport.
Stafford has been a really, really good player in the NFL for a long time, one that was clearly skilled enough to win a Super Bowl even when he was mired in the Detroit mess. Burrow has what it takes, too. But they can only win as many games as their situation — which is impacted by teammates, coaches, dumb luck, officials, etc. — allows them to.
One game, even if it’s the Super Bowl, does not a legacy make.
Unless, of course, you are the GOAT, Nick Foles.
Quick hits: Chloe Kim! … Nathan Chen! … Super Bowl 56 betting advice … and more.
— Chloe Kim won gold with an absurd halfpipe run, and the photos from it are so good.
— Nathan Chen put 2018 behind him and won gold in men’s figure skating.
— Aidan Hutchinson told us his best Jim Harbaugh story and it’s so Jim Harbaugh.
— Our Super Bowl previews continue with Christian D’Andrea breaking down five smart decisions that got the Rams to the big game, and the same for the Bengals.
— It’s NBA trade deadline day! Here are seven trades we’d like to see from Bryan Kalbrosky.
— Here are nine prop bets with “yes” or “no” answers and how to bet them from Prince Grimes.