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Matthew Stafford’s journey to the NFC West makes the 49ers climb back to the top of the division even more difficult. It also exacerbates their own issues under center that have lingered since Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt in Week 2 against the New York Jets. If San Francisco was lukewarm on searching for an upgrade before, it would figure that desire would intensify some with another prolific passer entering the division in Sean McVay’s offense.
Garoppolo is a capable signal caller. If he was outright bad the 49ers aren’t the No. 1 seed and coming with eight minutes of winning a Super Bowl with him starting all 16 games. However, there are limitations to his game that could make it difficult to keep up with some of the division’s high-octane offenses. Especially with Stafford and his penchant for completing deep throws adding a new weapon to an offensive as creative as McVay’s.
While 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has done a nice job with the running game and keeping Garoppolo’s throws in the middle of the field and inside of 20 yards, it’s going to become easier to defend San Francisco without the threat of a deep passing game.
Garoppolo, for example, only threw 6.5 percent of his attempts beyond 20 yards. Matt Ryan was at 9.7 percent in Shanahan’s offense in 2016. A trio of Browns quarterbacks were at 15.4 percent in Shanahan’s offense in 2014. Meanwhile, Garoppolo tossed 63 percent of his throws inside of 10 yards in 2019, and saw that number skyrocket to 67.9 percent this season, although part of that increase likely had to do with his playing on a high ankle sprain.
Stafford, on the other hand, threw 12.7 percent of his passes beyond 20 yards for the Lions last season, completed 41.8 percent of those throws (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson were both well below 40 percent on throws of 20-plus yards) for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. That’ll be a significant upgrade over Goff who completed just 30 percent of those throws with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
The fact is the 49ers offense has been somewhat limited, and keeping up in the NFC West is only going to get harder. That was the case no matter who was lining up under center for any of their division opponents, but facing Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and now Stafford six times a season makes the necessity of a higher-powered offense a little more urgent.
Shanahan has said the last two seasons he believes Garoppolo hasn’t reached his ceiling. In 2020 he wasn’t given the opportunity to reach it because of his injury issues. Perhaps the club believes he’ll start being more proficient at pushing the ball down the field in 2021, and they won’t search too hard for an upgrade. That’s a fairly significant gamble given his track record in San Francisco and the injury woes that’ve sidelined him for 23 games the last three seasons.
It also stands to reason they don’t view Stafford as a significant change for LA, and the move doesn’t cause a ripple effect large enough to influence San Francisco’s decision-making.
With Deshaun Watson’s trade demand looming, some other teams potentially looking to move on from veteran quarterbacks, and the No. 12 pick to work with, the 49ers could have several avenues to explore for a new signal caller. That was the case even before the Stafford deal, but an even better Rams squad makes the NFC West slate a gauntlet that San Francisco may not want to enter with Garoppolo under center.