Matthew Stafford certainly didn’t follow up his Super Bowl-winning 2021 season the way he hoped to. He struggled early in the year before suffering a concussion and neck injury that caused him to miss eight games, resulting in some disappointing numbers.
That doesn’t warrant the level of disrespect he’s getting in future MVP odds, though.
DraftKings Sportsbook released odds for 2023 NFL MVP and you have to scroll a bit to find Stafford’s name. He’s tied for the 19th-best odds of any player, sitting at +5000; a $100 bet would win $5,000. That’s tied with Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones.
What’s really shocking is the fact that some far less established players have better odds than Stafford. Brock Purdy is +2500 to win MVP despite it not even being clear whether he’ll start for the 49ers next season. Trey Lance, whose future is unclear, also has better odds than Stafford at +3500. Geno Smith even has shorter odds than Stafford at +3500.
And get ready for this one: Kenny Pickett is +4000 to win MVP, slightly better odds than Stafford’s. That’s the same Kenny Pickett who had seven touchdown passes and nine picks in 12 starts last season.
Stafford may not have looked like an MVP candidate in 2022, but he has a much higher ceiling than Purdy, Lance, Smith or Pickett. It’s hard to see any of those players throwing 40 touchdown passes the way Stafford did in 2021.
Team success is also a major factor in the MVP race, which makes Smith and Pickett’s odds especially surprising. The Seahawks have the eighth-worst Super Bowl odds and the Steelers have the 12th-worst.
The Rams are clearly being overlooked right now, and that includes Stafford individually.
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