The Maryland Terrapins (5-6, 2-6 in Big Ten) visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-6, 2-6) Saturday for a Big Ten East clash at SHI Stadium. The kickoff is set for noon ET. Below, we look at the Maryland vs. Rutgers odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Maryland has lost three straight games and hasn’t covered the spread in seven straight. The Terrapins allow the most points per game in the Big Ten and the second-most yards per play. Maryland is 3-8 ATS and 6-5 O/U with the 12th-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Rutgers have alternated between winning and losing its past five games (2-3 ATS) with the latest being a 28-0 loss at the Penn State Nittany Lions Saturday. The Scarlet Knights are 6-5 ATS and 4-7 O/U with the 19th-toughest schedule, according to Sagarin.
The Scarlet Knights beat the Terrapins 27-24 in overtime in last year’s meeting. However, Maryland is 4-3 overall and ATS vs. Rutgers since both schools joined the Big Ten in 2014.
Maryland at Rutgers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Maryland -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Rutgers +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread (ATS): Maryland -1.5 (-115) | Rutgers +1.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Maryland at Rutgers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Rutgers 24, Maryland 23
Money line
BET RUTGERS (+102) because there’s no way Maryland should be a road favorite in conference play.
Maryland head coach Mike Locksley took over the football program in 2019. In the Locksley era, Maryland is 5-17 overall in Big Ten games with a minus-20.4 margin of victory. Also, since this is priced as a coin-flip game, the Terrapins’ 1-3 ATS record as a road favorite since 2019 is applicable here.
Furthermore, Rutgers has a higher net efficiency and net points per drive than Maryland, according to Football Outsiders. On top of that, Rutgers is better in high-leverage situations (third-down conversions and red zone scoring) and has a higher Havoc rate differential.
Against the spread
PASS since Rutgers +1.5 (-107) doesn’t provide enough insurance for Rutgers’ money line. However, if the Scarlet Knights’ spread gets to +2.5 or higher then I’d definitely take Rutgers plus the points.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 53.5 (-110) for 1 unit because this total has already been hit by “sharp money,” and there’s still value in the Under.
For instance, Circa Sports in Las Vegas, which is a market-making sportsbook opened the Maryland-Rutgers total at 55.5.
Additionally, Maryland’s offense ranks 105th in busted drive rate and Rutgers’ defense ranks 25th in busted drive rate, according to Football Outsiders.
Plus Rutgers has the fourth-lowest scoring offense in the Big Ten and gains the second-fewest yards per play in the conference. Maybe the Scarlet Knights have more offensive success vs. an awful Terrapins defense. But I am not confident Rutgers hits its 26-point projected total.
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