The Maryland Terrapins (2-1 overall, 2-1 Big Ten) visit the Indiana Hoosiers (4-1, 4-1) Saturday at Memorial Stadium for a noon ET kickoff. Below, we analyze the Maryland-Indiana college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Hoosiers are No. 12 overall in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Maryland at Indiana: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Maryland +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Indiana -385 (bet $385 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Maryland +10.5 (-106) | Indiana -10.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 62.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Maryland at Indiana: Three things to know
- Maryland’s game against Michigan State last week was canceled due to a COVID outbreak. The last game the Terrapins played was 35-19 win at Penn State on Nov. 7.
- Indiana went into the “Horseshoe” and gave No. 3 Ohio State all it could handle last week. The Hoosiers fought back from a 35-7 early second-half deficit to get within a single-possession in what was a 42-35 loss. QB Michael Penix Jr. completed 27 of 51 passes for 491 yards and 5 touchdowns with 1 pick.
- The Hoosiers have beaten the Terrapins in back-to-back meetings and have a 4-2 record (3-3 ATS) against them since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014.
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Maryland at Indiana: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Maryland 37, Indiana 31
Money line (ML)
Maryland-Indiana opened up with the Hoosiers being +425 money line favorites and it’s been moved all the way down to its current number. The line movement is puzzling though because 91% of the money and 81% of the bets placed are on Indiana, yet they are getting cheaper, according to Pregame.com.
The House is saying they’d prefer Indiana bets over Maryland bets. We are going to apply this logic even heavier in the ATS section, however, I lean MARYLAND +300 for a quarter-unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
We made a small play on the underdogs because we love them to cover the spread. Again, this line is moving in the opposite direction of how it’s being bet and we cannot ignore that. The Hoosiers are getting 75% of the bets placed, but Indiana went from a 14-point favorite to the current price.
Also, the Hoosiers played a highly emotional game on the road against Ohio State last week and could come out flat. Indiana is eighth in havoc created, but I really like Maryland’s chances of its rushing attack working.
The Terrapins lead the Big Ten in yards per rush and the offensive line is ninth in the nation in line yards per carry, 10th in opportunity rate and 15th in stuff rate, according to Football Outsiders. The Hoosiers are 16th in sack rate, but their defensive line is 116th in line yards per carry, 112th in opportunity rate and 117th in stuff rate.
More importantly, the Hoosiers don’t have the ground game to put away games: Indiana is 123rd in yards per rush and 121st in rushing yards per game. The front and back doors are open for the Terrapins.
GIMME MARYLAND +10.5 (-106) for 1.5 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
Indiana games have gone Over the total in four of five and the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 Maryland-Indiana games. If Maryland’s offense can have success it’ll force Penix and his awesome WR corp to play a little catch-up.
Furthermore, Maryland’s offense was trending up before the 3-week hiatus and its defense is 98th in opponent’s points per game. Take OVER 62.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
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