The No. 14 Yale Bulldogs (19-11) meet the No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (27-7) Friday in the first round of the East Region. Tip from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Yale vs. Purdue odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Yale earned an automatic bid following a 2-point victory over Princeton in the Ivy League Championship, covering as 3.5-point underdogs.
The Bulldogs are 14-15 against the spread (ATS) this season and are led by 6-foot G Azar Swain, who is averaging 18.9 points per game.
Purdue will look to avoid an upset like No. 5-seeded conference-mate Iowa (upset by No. 12 Richmond). The Boilermakers are coming off a 9-point loss to the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Tournament, failing to cover as 2.5-point favorites.
The Boilermakers rank 7th in the nation in points per game (80.7) and rank 3rd in both three-point percentage and field goal percentage. They’re led by star G Jaden Ivey, who is averaging 17.4 points per game.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness bracket betting bonanza
Yale vs. Purdue odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:38 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yale +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Purdue -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Yale +16.5 (-115) | Purdue -16.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[tipico]
Yale vs. Purdue odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Purdue 73, Yale 64
Money line
PASS.
I don’t think Yale has much of a shot to pull off the upset, but in March we’ve seen stranger things. That said, either play on the money line here isn’t worth the risk.
Against the spread
LEAN to YALE +16.5 (-115).
This is more a fade on Purdue than anything. The Boilermakers have been awful against the spread recently.
They have not covered a game since Feb. 8 with a 0-8-2 mark since then. Purdue is just 13-19-2 ATS this season, and it has struggled to separate in large-spread games because of its average defense, ranking 103rd in the nation per Kenpom.
Yale’s strength is on the defensive end, ranking 100th in adjusted defensive rating. Its strength defensively is in guarding the three, allowing teams to shoot just 30.3% from deep.
If they can limit C Zach Edey from dominating inside and guard Purdue’s dominant three-point attack, Yale should, as I expect them to, cover.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 143.5 (-110).
Along with struggling to defend, the Boilermakers haven’t had the same high-scoring games that they did earlier in the season. They’re just 2-8 O/U in the last 10 games.
Purdue’s bread-and-butter is in its three-point shooting, which Yale has shown to be able to limit throughout the season. Yale’s opponents rank 39th in the nation in terms of three-point shooting percentage
Four of Yale’s 5 top players are upperclassmen, so they should be able to execute the game plan despite being severely undersized.
Lastly, both teams rank outside the top 75 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, which could limit the amount of possessions in this game and help the Under be the better option.
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