March Madness: Wagner vs. North Carolina odds, picks and predictions

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The Wagner Seahawks (17-15) and North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7) tangle in a West Region 1st-round game in Charlotte. Tip time at the Spectrum Center is slated for 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Wagner vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

Wagner made the Tournament field as champions of the Northeast Conference. The Seahawks registered an underdog win in a Tuesday First Four game in Dayton. The No. 16 seed was a 3-point underdog in that one, a 71-68 triumph over Howard. The victory marked the Seahawks’ 4th in a row, marking the program’s longest streak since December of 2022.

North Carolina is ranked No. 5 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. The West Region No. 1 seed won the regular-season ACC title, but the Tar Heels were ousted by NC State in the ACC Tournament title game Saturday. In that contest, UNC was a 10½-point favorite but was outshot by a wide margin in an 84-76 loss. The Wolfpack outshot the Tar Heels 54.9% to 37.3% from the floor.

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Wagner vs. North Carolina odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:230 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Wagner +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000) | North Carolina -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Wagner +24.5 (-105) | North Carolina -24.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Wagner vs. North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 76, Wagner 56

Moneyline

PASS. Look for better relative value against the spread.

Against the spread

Wagner has played a suspect schedule, one ranked No. 361 by KenPom, and the Seahawks went into March having won just 13 games. Wagner is a very young team playing great perimeter defense of late (26.5% opponent 3-point accuracy across the last 7 games) and grinding games down to a glacial pace.

North Carolina will have a mammoth talent advantage in this one. Just as it had against 5 previous Quad 4 foes this season, games in which the Tar Heels went 2-3 ATS.

The Seahawks have won 4 in a row against the number. Perhaps the home-away-from-home Tar Heels succumb to a somewhat sleepy time slot or peeks ahead past a 16-seed. A Carolina win by 20-plus, yet still one not reaching this bar is likely enough to warrant an account login for WAGNER +24.5 (-105).

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Over/Under

WU games lined in the 130’s have seen the Under go 10-2. UNC ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring, at 81.6 points per game, but the Under has prevailed in 5 of its last 8 games.

When playing the faster teams in the NEC, the Seahawks have been successful in making Unders a profitable play. Both teams defend the 3-ball well and are solid enough in defensive rebounding. Those are relative matchups: The Tar Heels will still get their points, but UNDER 133.5 (-110) is worth a partial-unit play.

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