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The No. 6 seed BYU Cougars (24-9) and the No. 11 seed VCU Rams (28-6) meet Thursday at Ball Arena in Denver in an NCAA Tournament East Region first-round Game. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 4:05 p.m ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the BYU vs. VCU odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
BYU was pounded 74-54 by the Houston Cougars in the Big 12 semifinals last Friday, splashing cold water on a 9-game win streak. BYU is still a very impressive 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last 10 contests. The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games, and 10-3-1 across the previous 14 outings.
Cougars G Richie Saunders leads the team at 16.0 points per game (PPG), while adding 4.4 rebounds per game (RPG). He also hits 51.4% from the field, and 43.7% from behind the 3-point line. He was one of just 2 players (G Egor Demin – 10.4 PPG) to average double digits in points in the regular season.
BYU hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since topping the Iona Gaels in a First Four game in 2012. It hasn’t won a first-round matchup since topping the Wofford Terriers as the No. 3 seed in 2011 with Kyle Collinsworth and Jimmer Fredette.
The Rams won the regular season title in the Atlantic 10 Conference (15-3), and it won the league tournament with 3 straight victories, although VCU was just 1-2 ATS in those games. After an 11-1-1 ATS run from Jan. 14-Feb. 28, the Rams are just 1-3-1 ATS in the past 5 games. The Under has a 5-4 edge across the previous 9 games.
VCU G Max Shulga had a slight lead in average points per game (15.5) over teammate G Joe Bamisile (15.3 PPG). Both were very good from the field, while Shulga hit a team-best 41.3% from behind the arc while leading the team with 3.8 APG and 1.9 steals per game.
VCU hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2016 when it topped the Oregon State Beavers as a 10-seed in the first round. It has lost 4 straight games in the Big Dance since then, while also getting bumped due to a no contest after positive COVID-19 tests in 2021 against the Oregon Ducks. VCU did make a run from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011 the last time it was a No. 11 seed.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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VCU vs. BYU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): BYU -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | VCU +118 (bet $100 to win $118)
- Against the spread (ATS): BYU -2.5 (-110) | VCU +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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VCU vs. BYU picks and predictions
Prediction
VCU 74, BYU 72
Moneyline
VCU (+118) is worth playing straight up for the mild upset in this 6-11 game.
The Rams have a dynamic duo with Bamisile and Shulga, and as long as they are shooting well, VCU not only has the opportunity to win, but win rather handily.
BYU (-145) is a decent offensive team, but it really all hinges on Saunders. If he is struggling with his shot, or he gets into foul trouble, the Cougars are cooked. There isn’t really a tertiary scoring option outside of Saunders and Demin. C Keba Keita did well in the Big 12 Tournament, coming on down the stretch, but he isn’t a pure scorer who can fill up the stat sheet quickly. And, the Cougars really struggle on perimeter defense, so if Shulga, in particular, is heating up, it’s going to be a long night for BYU.
Against the spread
If you’d like a little bit of wiggle room in a game which could potentially be a one-possession contest, or even feature a buzzer beater, taking VCU +2.5 (-110) is worth the play. But, that’s for conservative bettors. If you like the Rams, just take them straight up.
From me, it’s a PASS.
Over/Under
OVER 145.5 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most. It should be really close, coming down to the final ticks on the clock.
The Over is 6-2 in the past 8 games for BYU, and 10-3-1 across the past 14 outings, so that should make you feel good inside. But, the Over-Under has split 3-3 in the past 6 for VCU, while the Under holds a 5-4 edge in the past 9 outings. The good news is that the Rams have cashed high on the total in 5 of the past 7 games on a neutral floor.
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