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The 14th-seeded UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (27-7) battle the third-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders (25-8) Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off from the INTRUST Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas, is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UNC-Wilmington vs. Texas Tech odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
UNC-Wilmington is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 after a strong finish to the season. The Seahawks won 12 of their last 14 games, finishing 14-4 and second in the Coastal Athletic Association. They carried that momentum into the conference tournament, capping it off with a 76-72 win over the Delaware Blue Hens in the final. Led by G Donovan Newby‘s 14.6 points per game (PPG), they aim to win their first NCAA Tournament game since 2002, when they upset the USC Trojans.
No. 9 Texas Tech is in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth straight season after an impressive 15-5 finish and second-placefinish in Big 12 play. The Red Raiders fell short in the Big 12 Tournament, losing 86-80 to the Arizona Wildcats in the semifinals, but that doesn’t take away from a strong season. Led by second-team AP All-American JT Toppin (18.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG), Texas Tech looks to make a deep run. They’ve reached the Sweet 16 just once since 2019, the year they fell to the Virginia Cavaliers in the National Championship.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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UNC-Wilmington vs. Texas Tech odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:47 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UNC-Wilmington +850 (bet $100 to win $850) | Texas Tech -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UNC-Wilmington +14.5 (-102) | Texas Tech -14.5 (-118)
- Over/Under (O/U): 142.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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UNC-Wilmington vs. Texas Tech picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 83, UNC-Wilmington 64
Moneyline
PASS.
Texas Tech (-1600) will win this game going away, but obviously you can’t bet those moneyline odds, so take your wager to the spread.
Against the spread
BET TEXAS TECH -14.5 (-118).
Mid-major schools can make for great Cinderella stories in the NCAA Tournament, but this won’t be one of them. UNC-Wilmington simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace with Texas Tech. The Seahawks had just one major test in non-conference play, facing the Kansas, and lost 84-66. The Red Raiders are even more dangerous on both ends of the floor than that Jayhawks team.
Toppin is a matchup nightmare, putting up 25-plus points and 10-plus rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games. UNC-Wilmington doesn’t have anyone who can slow him down. Texas Tech has covered double-digit spreads against multiple mid-major teams this season, including Bethune-Cookman (-32.5), Wyoming (-18.5), Northern Colorado (-22), Oral Roberts (-28), and Lamar (-24.5).
The Seahawks may keep it competitive in the first half, but Texas Tech’s size, talent, and depth will take over late. Expect the Red Raiders to pull away and cover the spread comfortably in the second half.
Over/Under
BET OVER 142.5 (-110).
Texas Tech has hit the Over in 4 of its last 5 games, and while UNC-Wilmington has been Under in 3 of its last 4, those totals were set much higher than this one. The Seahawks can score, averaging 79.4 PPG, and while they may not hit that mark, they can still put up points. The Red Raiders are even more explosive at 80.9 PPG. With both teams capable offensively, I like this game to go Over.
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