The NCAA Tournament gets underway Thursday afternoon, but the best upsets should be during the evening slate of games. Everybody loves an upset during March Madness, and there will be plenty in the late session.
After looking at NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here are Thursday’s best first-round upset picks among our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
There are going to be a lot of bummed-out fans from the power conferences, as some big-name teams are going to be catching flights home early, including a four-time national champion.
See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
Thursday’s NCAA Tournament upset picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.
New Mexico State (+230 ML) vs. Connecticut (6:50 ET)
We get the 12-5 matchup between the Aggies and the Huskies out of the West Region in Buffalo. New Mexico State dominated Abilene Christian in the WAC title game, and it has now won and covered three games in a row. G Teddy Allen is going to be a handful for UConn.
The Aggies are a strong defensive team, too, and NMSU figures to give the Huskies a lot of trouble. We’ve seen UConn go all the way to the promised land four times, but we’ve also seen plenty of early exits, including last season as a seven-seed against Maryland.
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Vermont +4.5 (-107) vs. Arkansas (9:20 p.m. ET)
I don’t trust Vermont to win this one outright, but the Catamounts made a lot of noise in the America East Conference this season. They’ll give Arkansas all it can handle.
UVM has a nice combination which is a recipe for success. The Catamounts shot 48.6% from the field, ranked 15th in the country during the regular season, and allowed just 61.5 PPG to check in at 20th in the nation.
Arkansas is obviously a huge step up in the quality of competition, but UVM won’t be fazed. It played Providence well earlier in the season, and gave Maryland a nice run, too.
The Razorbacks have dropped two of their last three games, and this doesn’t look like the same team which went all the way to the Elite Eight last season before checking out against Baylor.
Akron +13.5 (-108) vs. UCLA (9:50 p.m. ET)
The Zips of Akron bounced rival Kent State by 20 points in the MAC Tournament championship game, winning their eighth consecutive game. Akron is also 7-1 ATS across its last eight outings, so it enters this tournament on a serious roll.
UCLA is a tough out, obviously, as G Jules Bernard, G Jaime Jaquez Jr. and G Johnny Juzang are one of the better triumvirates in the nation. However, the Bruins have had lapses. This team lost to a bad Arizona State team 87-84 on the road Feb. 5 as a 10.5-point favorite, a matchup very similar to this one.
The Bruins are also just 5-5 SU/ATS in their previous 10 games either on the road or at a neutral site. Akron nearly topped a power conference team back in November, losing a heartbreaker at Ohio State on a tip-in at the last second. The Zips can definitely hang, and they’ll give the Bruins all they can handle, especially since Akron is a solid defensive squad.
Creighton (+120 ML) vs. San Diego State (7:27 p.m. ET)
This one won’t be considered much of an upset as it’s just an 8-9 game, but the Bluejays of Creighton have been playing good basketball of late. Creighton won two games to get to the Big East Final before falling to Villanova 54-48 in a defensive affair. Creighton covered all three tourney games, too.
The Bluejays have actually covered nine of their last 11 games overall. You won’t need the points here, however. The cadre of Ryans, which include F Ryan Hawkins, C Ryan Kalkbrenner and G Ryan Nembhard, will give the defensive-minded Aztecs problems.
San Diego State is a tremendous defensive team, ranking second in the country during the regular season with 58.3 PPG allowed. However, it has a hard time scoring and that kind of basketball typically isn’t good for long-term success in the NCAA Tournament. You need to have a good combination of defense and solid scoring, and San Diego State is awful offensively. It shoots just 43.5% from the field, and the Aztecs are horrible at the free-throw line, too, at just 69.7%.
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