March Madness: Sweet 16 strategy for the $2.5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

Win $2.5K in the NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool: Sweet 16 pick and prediction.

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My 2025 Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool was eliminated in the first round for a second straight season. For my second-round suggestions, I rolled the dice on a long shot and it nearly came through.

The 12th-seeded Colorado State Rams were in good shape for most of the game against the No. 4 seed Maryland Terrapins. Playing the Rams was worth a shot, as they could have racked up some huge second-round points.

However, leading by 1 point, the Rams were unable to contain Terrapins super freshman Derik Queen in the final ticks. He hit a game-winning runner off the glass to beat the buzzer, helping Maryland escape 72-71 — it was questionable if he traveled before the shot.

My other pick won as the No. 4 seed Arizona Wildcats topped the No. 5 Oregon Ducks 87-83 in a renewal of acquaintances by former Pac-12 rivals.

Arizona actually got off to an awful start, falling behind 19-4 in the first 5:33. By halftime, however, the Wildcats took a 42-38 lead, finishing the final 14:27 of the first half on a 38-19 run. Former UNC star G Caleb Love lifted the Wildcats to the win with 29 points, while F Tobe Awaka managed 12 points with 14 rebounds.

There are 8,330 entries still alive heading into the Sweet 16.

In reality, I couldn’t be eliminated because as an employee, I’m not eligible to win this contest. However, I can still assist those of you who have a shot at the $2.5K first prize — but I’d understand if you don’t want my advice after suffering a loss in each of the first 2 rounds.

A rules reminder: Remaining entries are required to make 1 pick per round to win outright — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.

Along with not being able to choose the same team twice, the other tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds.

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On to the next round.

Sweet 16 pick

PICK 1: MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (29-6)

Who they play: Ole Miss Rebels (24-11)

When: Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta

The Spartans will face their biggest test of the NCAA Tournament so far. They routed No. 15 seed Bryant 87-62 as a 17-point favorites in the first round.

In the second round, Michigan State had the benefit of facing No. 10 seed New Mexico, a team which had never advanced to the Sweet 16 since the field expanded to 64 teams. The drought continued for the Lobos as Sparty picked up a 71-63 win as 6.5-point favorites.

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Michigan State hit just 44.4% (24-for-54) from the field, while managing just 26.7% (4-for-15) from behind the 3-point line against New Mexico.

G Jaden Akins hit 7-for-11 from the floor and scored a team-best 16 points, including a pair of 3-pointers. G Tre Holloman added 14 points off the bench with a pair of triples, too. That made up for the disappearance of G Jase Richardson, who hit just 1-of-10 from the field, including 0-for-5 from the perimeter, and finished with 6 points.

Michigan State outrebounded New Mexico 34-28, and turned it over just 9 times to the Lobos’ 10 TOs. However, the Spartans will need to shoot much better from distance and inside the paint. They even struggled at the free-throw line, going 67.9% (19-for-28). They’ll need to pick up the pace significantly against a much tougher foe.

Ole Miss polished off No. 11 seed North Carolina 71-64 in the opening round, surviving a little bit of a collapse and hanging on late.

In the second round, the Rebels were much better, prevailing 91-78 against No. 3 seed Iowa State. G Sean Pedulla led the way with 20 points, including 3 triples vs. the Cyclones. Ole Miss was a scorching 58.2% (32-for-55) from the field, while forcing 15 turnovers — Michigan State won’t have nearly that many miscues.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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