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The St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash (16-17) and Alabama State Hornets (19-15) meet Tuesday in an NCAA Tournament First Four game in Dayton, Ohio, for the South Region No. 16 seed. Tip-off from UD Arena is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the St. Francis (Pa.) vs. Alabama State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
A late-season surge propelled St. Francis to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1991. The Red Flash finished fourth in the Northeast Conference (8-8), but caught fire and have won 6 straight games, including a gritty 46-43 victory over top-seeded Central Connecticut State in the conference championship. Junior G Riley Parker leads the team at 13.4 points per game (PPG) while shooting 39.9% from beyond the arc.
Alabama State heads to the fifth NCAA Tournament, and first since 2011, after a terrific finish, winning 10 of its last 11 games. The Hornets were fourth in the Southwestern Athletic Conference at 12-6. Their run included a hard-fought 60-56 win over the No. 2 seed Jackson State Tigers in the SWAC title game to claim the automatic bid. Alabama State is powered by dynamic guards CJ Hines and Amarr Knox, both averaging 14 PPG.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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St. Francis (Pa.) vs. Alabama State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 6:16 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): St. Francis (Pa.) +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Alabama State -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): St. Francis (Pa.) +4.5 (-115) | Alabama State -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 139.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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St. Francis (Pa.) vs. Alabama State picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama State 71, St. Francis (Pa.) 70
Moneyline
PASS.
I’ve got Alabama State (-190) winning this game, but it will likely come down to the last possession which is why I’ll take my wager to the spread.
Against the spread
BET ST. FRANCIS (PA.) +4.5 (-115).
Alabama State and St. Francis are evenly matched across the board. The Hornets average 73.4 PPG while the Red Flash put up 71.1. St. Francis allows 71.6 PPG while Alabama State gives up 72.2. But recent trends tell a different story.
The Red Flash tightened up defensively during their NEC Tournament run, holding opponents to just 55.3 PPG over 3 games. Meanwhile, Alabama State has struggled offensively, managing only 66.6 PPG over their last 5 contests. That could be a problem against a St. Francis team that thrives in tight games.
Toting a 6-game win streak, the Red Flash have shown they can handle pressure, with 5 of those 6 wins decided by 5 points or less. They also went 5-0-1 against the spread (ATS) during that stretch, capping it off with a championship win over top-seeded Central Connecticut State, a 25-7 squad.
Beyond their recent momentum, St. Francis also prepared themselves with a tough non-conference schedule, facing teams like the Dayton Flyers, Clemson Tigers, Penn State Nittany Lions, Georgetown Hoyas, and Maryland Terrapins. That experience should pay off here.
With a 17-12-1 ATS record compared to Alabama State’s 14-17-2, the Red Flash have a strong chance to keep it close and possibly steal the win late.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 139.5 (-105).
Alabama State has gone Under in 9 of its last 10 games, and scoring hasn’t come easy for them lately. On the other side, St. Francis has been locking teams down, holding CCSU to just 43 points in the NEC title game. With the pressure of the tournament and some early-game nerves likely in play, this one has all the makings of a low-scoring game. The Under looks like the move here.
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