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The No. 1 seed Houston Cougars (30-4) and the No. 16 seed SIUE Cougars (25-9) meet Thursday at INTRUST Bank Arena in an NCAA Tournament Midwest Region first-round Game in Wichita, Kansas. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 2 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Houston vs. SIUE odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The top-seed Cougars posted 30 victories this season, including 3 straight in the Big 12 Tournament to cut down the nets for a championship. Houston ended the regular season with a 1-3-1 against the spread (ATS) mark in the final 5 games, but went 2-1 ATS in the league tourney. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 outings, and 6-2 in the previous 8 contests.
Houston went 1-3 straight up (SU) and 0-4 ATS in 4 regular-season games on a neutral floor, but it was 3-0 SU/ATS in Kansas City in the conference tournament.
The Cougars led the nation in defense with 58.5 points per game (PPG) allowed, while limiting teams to 38.3% from the field (fourth). It also held teams to just 30.9% from behind the 3-point line, ranking 40th in the country. G L.J. Cryer led the team with 15.1 PPG.
Houston F J’Wan Roberts rolled his ankle in the Big 12 Tournament opener vs. the Colorado Buffaloes on March 13. He is listed as probable to play Thursday.
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville makes its first trip to the NCAA Tournament out of the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC). SIUE topped the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 69-48 in the OVC title game March 8 as a 3.5-point underdog as the Under (136) cashed. G Ray-Sean Taylor led the team in the regular season with 19.3 PPG, while import G Ring Malith averaged 11.5 PPG with a team-best 7.2 RPG.
SIUE was 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS in 2 games as a double-digit underdog this season, averaging 59.5 PPG AND allowing 85.0 PPG. The Under cashed in both meetings — at the Indiana Hoosiers Nov. 6 and at the Illinois Fighting Illini Nov. 8.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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SIUE vs. Houston odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SIUE +3300 (bet $100 to win $3,300) | Houston -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: SIUE +29.5 (-110) | Houston -29.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 126.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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SIUE vs. Houston picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 85, SIUE 54
Moneyline
Houston (-10000) would cost you $100 for every $1 in profit. While we’ve seen a 16-seed win just twice before in the NCAA Tournament and it’s nearly a lock for the Big 12 champs to advance, it is still not a recommended betting strategy. There are much better ways to make a dollar if you really need one that badly.
PASS, and look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
HOUSTON -29.5 (-110) is going to be in for a tussle, at least early on. SIUE is a team with a little bit of size. And the Cougars of the OVC have some heart, too. Edwardsville is going be thrilled to be on the big stage, and I expect it to fire out of the chute initially.
In fact, SIUE +16.5 (-110) – 1ST HALF LINE is a strong play in the first 20 minutes. However, Edwardsville doesn’t have the size or strength to match up with the No. 1 seed for the entirety of the game, and you can expect Houston to pull away for the cover in the second half as things get out of hand.
Over/Under
OVER 126.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.
Yes, Houston has the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation. But, Houston should be able to get well into the 80s against SIUE, so we simply need the OVC representative to get into the mid-40s to cash this Over. That shouldn’t be an issue.
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