The No. 5-seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7) meet the No. 4 seed UCLA Bruins (26-7) Saturday for a second-round East Region NCAA Championship Tournament game. Tip-off from Moda Center in Portland, Ore., is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Saint Mary’s vs. UCLA odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Saint Mary’s trounced Indiana 82-53 Thursday and is 14-3 over its last 17 games. Two of those three losses were at the hands of West Coast Conference foe Gonzaga, the top-ranked team in the nation. The 53 points allowed against IU was impressive but not shocking. The nationally 16th-ranked Gaels have allowed just 60.3 points per game this season (ninth NCAA-I).
UCLA can nearly match those defensive numbers of late. The Bruins have yielded just 61.5 PPG in going 9-2 since Feb. 17. They allowed 53 in a first-round game against Akron which was too close for comfort (57-53). The nationally 12th-ranked Bruins shot a paltry 35.2% from the floor in that contest. UCLA’s previous eight wins (Feb. 17-March 11) were by an average of 17.1 points before Thursday’s close shave.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Saint Mary’s vs. UCLA odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:59 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Saint Mary’s +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | UCLA -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-107) | UCLA -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 125.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Saint Mary’s vs. UCLA odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
UCLA 67, Saint Mary’s 63
Money line
The mid-range game is a lean for UCLA. The Gaels aren’t weak in defending mid-range jumpers, but it’s not a relative strength either. The Bruins can gain some leverage there.
SMC can also be hurt by the 3-ball. UCLA is competent in that area but more so when it’s home at Pauley Pavilion and they don’t typically fire many attempts from the perimeter.
PASS on this price but UCLA at -145 or better would be worth a look.
Against the spread
The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games as underdogs. The Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.
Teams that get to the line frequently become an issue for Saint Mary’s. UCLA’s numbers in that vein have generally been on the rise (although it only attempted 13 foul shots Thursday).
Peg the Bruins for some slight but positive margins in turnovers and rebounds and in a game looser on the score than what shows in the lined total. TAKE UCLA -2.5 (-115).
Over/Under
Both teams play at a slow pace. SMC plays at a slowest-15% pace, but their tempo figures have been trending faster of late.
Figuring this one edges closer to 130 due to some efficient back-and-forth, BACK THE OVER 125.5 (-115).
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