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The 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky Norse (22-12) battle the No. 1 Houston Cougars (31-3) Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip from Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Ala., is set for 9:20 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Northern Kentucky vs. Houston odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
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Houston comes into this game having lost to the Memphis Tigers 76-65 in the AAC Championship without Marcus Sasser. The star guard is expected to play in the tournament and he averages a team-high 17.1 points per game. The Cougars failed to cover 7 of their last 9 games.
Northern Kentucky beat Cleveland State 63-61 on March 7 to win the Horizon League Tournament, but failed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite. It is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 8 games. The Norse are led by F Marques Warrick, who has scored at least 20 points in 7 of their last 9 games.
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Northern Kentucky vs. Houston odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Northern Kentucky +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Houston -3000 (bet $3,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Northern Kentucky +19.5 (-110) | Houston -19.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 121.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Northern Kentucky vs. Houston picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 75, Northern Kentucky 58
Moneyline
AVOID.
Sasser should be healthy, and the Cougars should role Northern Kentucky. Houston has won 13 of its last 14 and beat teams like Oral Roberts (by 38), Oregon, Virginia, and Kent State in non-conference play.
Against the spread
BET NORTHERN KENTUCKY +19.5 (-110).
The Norse have won 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. While their non-conference schedule wasn’t overly difficult, they did beat Cincinnati by 13 on Nov. 16. NKU has covered 10 of its last 14 games.
While the Cougars started out hot, crushing teams by 20-plus points when favored to do so, they are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games in which they were at least a 15-point favorite. Sasser’s injury in the AAC semifinal may also mean limited minutes if they get up big and increase the potential for a Norse backdoor cover.
Back NORTHERN KENTUCKY +19.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 121.5 (-115).
Sasser is expected to play and that should give the Houston offense a boost. While Houston has the 4th-best defense per Kenpom, it also has the 11th-best offense.
Northern Kentucky’s offense isn’t elite, but it has gone Over in 2 of its last 4 and scored at least 63 points in each of those. Houston has gone Over in 7 of its last 13.
Considering the presence of Sasser and Warrick, back the OVER 121.5 (-115).
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