The No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (26-9) meet the No. 4 seed UCLA Bruins (27-7) at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia for a Sweet 16 matchup in the East Region. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:39 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the North Carolina vs. UCLA odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
The Bruins barely survived No.13 seed Akron in the first round (57-53) but managed a 72-56 victory over No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s in the second round. They are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in postseason play and 18-15-1 ATS on the season.
A game-changing factor for UCLA will be what level postseason leading scorer F Jaime Jaquez Jr. can reach. He’s hopeful to play but he may not be at 100% after spraining his ankle against Saint Mary’s.
The Tar Heels are 3-1 ATS in postseason play. They destroyed No. 9 seed Marquette 95-63 in the first round. UNC blew a 25-point second-half lead to No. 1 seed Baylor but won 93-86 in overtime in the second round.
North Carolina is led by 6-foot-9 F Brady Manek, who is averaging 21.3 points per game on 56.6% shooting in postseason play.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
North Carolina vs. UCLA odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line: North Carolina +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | UCLA -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina +2.5 (-120) | UCLA -2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
[tipico]
North Carolina vs. UCLA odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
UNC 73, UCLA 70
Money line
SPRINKLE on UNC (+115).
I prefer taking the points in this situation, but there’s value on UNC outright. For starters, look at what it has done this tournament, ripping a top-ten seed and then manhandling a top seed for 25 minutes and then overtime.
UNC has a perfect mix of size, speed and shooting. Manek has led the way, but it’s been the pick-and-roll action with C Armando Bacot and G Caleb Love that’s freed him up.
Compare that to UCLA’s isolation-heavy attack, and I like the Tar Heels to come out on top, especially if the Bruins leading scorer is playing at less than 100%.
Against the spread
BET NORTH CAROLINA +2.5 (-120).
Like UCLA, Baylor ranked in the top 15 per Kenpom in both offensive and defensive efficiency. What they also have in common is being outside the top 150 in tempo.
That’s where UNC will find its edge and has so far this postseason. It sits 32nd in adjusted tempo and ranks top 45 in efficiency on both ends of the court.
Arizona plays a similar run-and-gun style to UNC and beat UCLA twice this season, winning the only neutral-court game. The Bruins’ first two games have been against teams that play similar to their own style.
UNC doesn’t play that style and that could cause trouble for UCLA in this one.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 141.5 (-110).
The Tar Heels rank 28th in the nation in points per game and 31st in three-point shooting, connecting in 37.4% of their attempts from deep. They also have the 279th-ranked defense in terms of opponents’ points per game.
Given the Bruins have the 12th-ranked offensive efficiency per Kenpom, they should be able to find success against a weaker Tar Heels defense.
With UNC having crushed both totals so far in the tournament and UCLA 1-1 O/U in its two tourney games, I’d look for them to push the pace and force the Over to hit.
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