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The 14th-seeded Montana Grizzlies (25-9) and No. 3 seed Wisconsin Badgers (26-9) meet Thursday at Ball Arena in Denver in an NCAA Tournament East Region first-round Game. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Wisconsin vs. Montana odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Montana topped the Northern Colorado Bears 91-83 March 12, capping off a 3-0 SU/ATS (straight up/against the spread) run in the Big Sky Tournament. The Grizzlies have posted an impressive 11-2-1 ATS mark in the past 14 games. G Money Williams led the team with 13.3 PPG in the regular season, while G Joe Pridgen had 11.5 PPG and a team-best 6.9 RPG in 34 games.
The Griz faced a Big Ten Team on Nov. 8, losing 79-48 at the Oregon Ducks as an 18.5-point underdog as the Under (152) cashed.
The Badgers lost 59-53 in the Big Ten Tournament final against the Michigan Wolverines, halting a 3-game win streak. Wisconsin is just 5-4 straight up (SU) in the past 9 games since Feb. 22, while going 4-5 against the spread (ATS). The Under has a slight 5-4 edge in the 9-game span.
Badgers G John Tonje averaged 21.3 points per game (PPG) in 4 Big Ten Tournament games while averaging 7.5 rebounds per game (RPG). G John Blackwell was good for 14.5 PPG and 4.3 RPG in 4 games.
Wisconsin faced a Big Sky Conference team this season, topping the Montana State Bobcats 79-67 on Nov. 7. It failed to cover as a 17-point favorite as the Over (144.5) cashed.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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Montana vs. Wisconsin odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:37 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Montana +1050 (bet $100 to win $1,050) | Wisconsin -2500 (bet $2,500 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Montana +17.5 (-118) | Wisconsin -17.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 151.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Montana vs. Wisconsin picks and predictions
Prediction
Wisconsin 86, Montana 67
Moneyline
Wisconsin (-2500) will set you back $100 for every $4 of profit, so that’s obviously way too expensive for not nearly enough reward.
The Badgers are looking to bounce back after losing to Michigan in the Big Ten final, and it should be able to do just that against a smallish Montana (+1050) team which ranked 213th in scoring defense (72.9 PPG) and 269th in defensive field-goal percentage (45.5%).
PASS, though, as it is too much risk for no value whatsoever.
Against the spread
MONTANA +17.5 (-118) is worth taking with the large amount of points.
While the Badgers are a solid 9-5 ATS in the past 14 games since Feb. 1, and 12-6 ATS in the past 18 games, Wisconsin is just 3-5-1 ATS in 9 games this season as a double-digit favorite, and it failed to cover in its only previous game this season against a Big Sky foe.
The Grizzlies enter on a 4-game cover streak, while going 11-2-1 ATS across the past 14 outings.
For what it’s worth, Montana is 0-4 ATS in the past 4 NCAA Tournament trips since 2012, including a 73-49 loss to Wisconsin in 2012. Three of those losses and non-covers were against Big Ten foes, too, so don’t go overboard. But, those losses and non-covers were also with kids long gone from the program, so it’s worth noting, but not necessarily applicable to this season’s squad.
Over/Under
OVER 151.5 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over cashed in the Big Sky title game for Montana, but scoring against Northern Colorado versus Wisconsin is a totally different animal.
Still, the Badgers hit the Over in all 2 of the 3 final Big Ten tourney battles, while holding a slight 6-5 edge to the Over in the past 11 outings. Go lightly.
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