The 14th-seeded Montana State Bobcats (27-7) play the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders (25-9) Friday in the first round of the West Region. Tip-off at Viejas Arena in San Diego is set for 1:45 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Montana State vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Montana State won the Big Sky regular-season and tournament titles to earn a bracket bid for the first time since 1996. The Bobcats are 17-14-1 ATS with 124th-ranked adjusted net rating (per KenPom) and the 302nd-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Texas Tech lost to the Kansas Jayhawks 74-65 in the Big 12 Tournament title game. The Red Raiders earned an at-large bid thanks to a 20-plus-win record in the nation’s toughest conference by winning percentage.
The Red Raiders are 21-13 ATS with KenPom’s ninth-best adjusted net rating and the 25th-toughest schedule, per Sagarin.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness bracket betting bonanza
Montana State at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:54 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Montana State +750 (bet $100 to win $750) | Texas Tech -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Montana State +14.5 (-105) | Texas Tech -14.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 131.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Montana State at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 68, Montana State 58
Money line
PASS because Texas Tech is obviously the right side but way too expensive at -1400. The Red Raiders have the second-best defensive rating in the country and have a lot more size and experience than Montana State.
Texas Tech’s ceiling is the Final Four whereas it would be a miracle if Montana State won this game.
Against the spread
LEAN to MONTANA STATE +14.5 (-105) because this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market and this could be a sandwich spot for Texas Tech.
According to Pregame.com, a slight majority of the cash is on Montana State but nearly 60% of the bets placed are on Texas Tech. Since the sharps wager far more money than your average Joe, it’s generally more profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
Also, this is Texas Tech’s fourth consecutive Big Dance, which includes a 2019 national championship loss to the Virginia Cavaliers, and the Red Raiders just lost its conference title game. It wouldn’t be shocking for Texas Tech to start slow in a first-round game it expects to breeze through.
However, I only LEAN to MONTANA STATE +14.5 (-107) because the Under is my favorite bet in this game.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 131.5 (-107) because Montana State hasn’t seen anything like this Texas Tech defense and the Red Raiders have a clunky offense. Texas Tech’s defense is in the top-25 of turnover rate, effective field goal shooting and rebounding rate.
Furthermore, the Red Raiders turn games into rock-fights. Texas Tech is 1-5 O/U in its last six neutral-site games as favorites and 0-4 O/U in the last four NCAA Tournament games as favorites.
On top of that, more than 80% of the cash is on the Over but this total hasn’t budged off the consensus opener (according to Pregame.com). It’s suspicious whenever oddsmakers don’t move a line that’s getting this heavily bet into.
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