March Madness: Miami vs. Auburn odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami vs. Auburn odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 10 seed Miami Hurricanes (24-10) meet the No. 2 seed Auburn Tigers (28-5) in the second round of the Midwest Region. Tip from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., is set for 7:45 p.m. ET (truTV). Below, we look at the Miami vs. Auburn odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

The Hurricanes took down seventh-seeded USC in the first round. They escaped with a 68-66 victory, covering as 2-point underdogs.

Miami is 19-14-1 against the spread (ATS) this season. Outside of Duke’s 1-0 ATS record as an underdog, the Hurricanes were a conference-best 10-2 ATS as dogs this season.

As for the Tigers, who rank No. 7 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports, they defeated the Jacksonville State Gamecocks 80-61 in the first round, covering as 14-point favorites.

Auburn is led by potential NBA Draft top-three pick F Jabari Smith, who averages 17.2 points per game. Smith scored a team-high 20 points, including hitting four 3’s, in the first-round victory. Auburn is 20-13 ATS this season.

Miami vs. Auburn odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Miami +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Auburn -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Miami +7.5 (-120) | Auburn -7.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 144.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Miami vs. Auburn odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Auburn 78, Miami 72

Money line

PASS.

The only playable side is the Hurricanes (+250), but I like the Tigers (-320) to win, mainly due to their size advantage. Miami’s high-ceiling offense should help keep this game interesting though.

Against the spread

LEAN to MIAMI +7.5 (-120).

Had this line been around 4.5 or 5.5, I’d likely have a different opinion, but 7.5 is too many points for a team that’s consistently hung around with good opponents.

Miami beat both Duke and UNC in the regular season and then covered in a 4-point loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament.

Two of Miami’s top-three scorers are seniors, and two of their top six scoring options stand 6-foot-9 or taller. So, the ‘Canes will at least have some size to deal with the Tigers’ Smith and F Walker Kessler.

Both teams have covered at a high rate this season, so it’s just a lean here.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 144.5 (-107).

Smith is a legit NBA player. He makes shots most don’t think about attempting, and his length and size have helped him create easy shots for himself.

He’s a key reason why Auburn is 19-14 O/U. It even covered the 140 O/U line against Jacksonville State despite the Gamecocks scoring just 61.

Miami should be able to keep pace with Auburn behind senior G Kameron McGusty,who is averaging 17.4 per game on 47.2% shooting.

Miami is 20-14 O/U and ranks 83rd in the nation with 74.9 points per game, also sitting top 30 in shooting. Miami has the 18th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, sitting 148th in defensive efficiency.

Auburn is respectively 23rd and seventh.

Auburn is 40th in adjusted tempo, so while its defense may be better, the pace should help Miami get more transition opportunities in which its plethora of attack-minded guards can expose.

Overall, considering the trends for strengths of both teams, the Over is the best bet in this game.

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