The 11-seed Iowa State Cyclones (20-12) tangle with the 6-seed LSU Tigers (22-11) Friday in a Midwest Region first-round game. Tip-off at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Iowa State vs. LSU odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Iowa State earned an at-large bid to the Big Dance in coach T.J. Otzelberger’s first year on the job because of its quality wins with the 21st-ranked strength of schedule (according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin).
The Cyclones are 17-15 against the spread (ATS) and they are tied for the fifth-most Quad 1 wins (9-8 overall record in Quad 1 games) with KenPom’s 46th-best adjusted net rating.
LSU fired coach Will Wade last week after allegations of several NCAA violations. The Tigers, who were eliminated in the quarterfinals of the SEC Conference tourney, were also an at-large bid.
The Tigers are 19-14 ATS with the 19th-best adjusted net rating (per KenPom) and Sagarin’s 34th-toughest schedule.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NCAA March Madness bracket betting bonanza
Iowa State vs. LSU odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:21 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Iowa State +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | LSU -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Iowa State +3.5 (-105) | LSU -3.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 128.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Iowa State vs. LSU odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 67, LSU 64
Money line
SPRINKLE on IOWA STATE (+155) since the Cyclones plus the points is a sharp wager. But there are a couple of systems that give Iowa State a little more value in this spot.
For instance, 6-seeds are just 21-23 straight up (SU) versus 11-seeds since 2010. Also, Iowa State was just 7-11 SU in Big 12 games and there have been four other instances of NCAA Tournament teams four games below-.500 in conference play. Those teams are 4-0 SU in the first round.
Furthermore, Iowa State has a couple of strength-on-weakness edges over LSU. The Cyclones are 16th in defensive 3-point percentage and the Tigers are 268th in 3-point shooting percentage. LSU is 304th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) whereas Iowa State is sixth in defensive TOV%, per KenPom.
Again, the preferred play is the Cyclones plus the points but I’ll SPRINKLE on IOWA STATE (+155).
Against the spread
Definitely BET IOWA STATE +3.5 (-105) heavier than or instead of the money line because this is a much better spot for the Cyclones.
Not only does LSU have a worse record versus Quad 1 teams (6-9 SU), but the Tigers have performed much worse in neutral-site games. LSU is just 1-4 ATS in neutral venues (minus-2.1 ATS margin) while Iowa State is 2-1 ATS (plus-9.5). Also, the Tigers are 0-3 ATS as 3-to-4.5-point favorites.
I’m on IOWA STATE +3.5 (-105) for 1.25 units.
Over/Under
PASS because the total is a little too low plus these teams shoot so poorly from the field that I have no confidence in the Over either.
If anything, I “lean” Over 127.5 (-112) because both teams’ poor offensive TOV% could lead to easy buckets for their opponents and each has terrible defensive free-throw attempt rates.
But, we’d be getting the worst of the number since the Iowa State-LSU total opened at 125, according to Pregame.com.
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