The No. 5 seed Houston Cougars (31-5) and No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats (33-3) will scratch and claw in a South Region Sweet 16 matchup Thursday. Tip-off from AT&T Center in San Antonio is scheduled for 9:59 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Houston vs. Arizona odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Houston’s first week in the tourney included wins over UAB (82-68 Friday) and nationally 16th-ranked Illinois (68-53 Sunday). The No. 15 team in the nation is 11-1 over its last 12 games. The slow-tempo Cougars have held foes fewer than 60 points in six of those wins.
Arizona advanced with wins over Wright State (87-70 Friday) and TCU (85-80 Sunday). The Wildcats needed overtime to get by TCU. The nation’s No. 2-ranked team plays at an ultra-fast pace, and they use those extra possessions to their advantage. UA owns the NCAA-I’s eighth-best effective field-goal mark (55.9%) on offense and the fourth-best mark on defense (44.1%).
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Houston vs. Arizona odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Houston +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Arizona -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Houston +1.5 (-110) | Arizona -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
[tipico]
Houston vs. Arizona odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 76, Arizona 74
Money line
A few prominent analytics sites peg Houston as a slight favorite in this game, and I’m inclined to agree. Houston has done well versus expectations in high-possession games. It can struggle against teams that turn steals into breakaway buckets at a hefty clip, but that is not a UA strength.
Arizona’s numbers in the last 6-7 weeks have slipped in defensive efficiency, turnovers, and offensive rebounding. Add in Houston having an experience edge, and the COUGARS (+102) are a decent play.
Against the spread
Houston has won five straight games against the spread and it is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
BACK HOUSTON +1.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The Over has gone 7-1 across Arizona’s last eight games.
The Wildcat defense has slipped a bit over recent weeks. UA held opposing shooters to a 35% mark over the first two rounds, but the Wildcats are not too far removed from a February-March stretch that saw some ungainly shooting marks creep in. Arizona allowed 74.0 points per game from Feb. 19-March 10.
With the both-ends offensive rebounding in this game plus UH’s transition expectation plus UA’s free-throw frequency expectation, the OVER 145.5 (-108) makes sense here.
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