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The Grand Canyon Antelopes (29-4) and Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7) meet Friday for an NCAA Tournament 1st-round game. Tip-off from the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena is scheduled for approximately 10:05 p.m. ET (truTV). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The Antelopes racked up a pair of wins and covers against Seattle and UT Arlington in the WAC Tournament, covering both times as 6-point favorites. GRC has won and covered 5 in a row in since back-to-back losses to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian Feb. 22-24. The Over has cashed in 2 in a row, while going 5-3 in the past 8 outings.
The Gaels — who are No. 15 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll — topped Santa Clara (semifinal) and Gonzaga (title game) in the WCC Tournament, covering both times while splitting the total. Saint Mary’s has won 18 of the past 19 games, with only a 13-point setback at home in Moraga, Calif., against the Zags in the regular-season finale. SMC is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 10 games, and 12-4 ATS in the past 16 outings.
This is the 1st meeting between these teams since March 1, 2016, when Saint Mary’s won 73-64 at home.
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Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Grand Canyon +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Saint Mary’s -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Grand Canyon +5.5 (-110) | Saint Mary’s -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 131.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 74, Grand Canyon 62
Moneyline
Saint Mary’s (-250) will cost 2½ times the potential return. It could be a struggle initially before talent takes over and the Gaels pull away in the second half.
Backing the ML at this price is too risky to play Saint Mary’s straight up, however, or even as part of a multi-team parlay without any boosts.
PASS, and focus on the spread instead.
Against the spread
SAINT MARY’S -5.5 (-110) is a tremendous play laying less than 3 buckets.
This is a team which has spent a majority of the season in the Top 25, and with the exception for a loss to Gonzaga in the regular-season finale, it was rather perfect since the holidays. Plus, that Gonzaga game was rather meaningless since Saint Mary’s already had the WCC regular-season title wrapped up.
Grand Canyon did score a win at San Diego State against the defending national runner-up back in early December. However, this is a team which dropped consecutive games to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian just a few weeks ago, and it went just 4-3 in the final 7 regular-season games. The Antelopes have been a sexy upset pick, but make no mistake, the Gaels are for real, and will blow past GRC.
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Over/Under
OVER 131.5 (-105) might be the best play on the board in this final game of the Friday slate.
The Antelopes averaged 84.5 points per game in their 2 WAC Tourney games, while allowing 73.0 PPG. This team has a powerful offense, but the 3-point shooting can be rather erratic. Defensively, the Antelopes are very good, and that’s what will keep them in the game, at least early on.
Saint Mary’s rolled up 76 or more points in 6 of the past 9 outings, while cashing the Over at a 5-2 clip in the past 7 games. The Gaels are gifted offensively, going for 74.3 PPG, while hitting shots at a 46.7% pace from the field. Defensively, the Gaels are very good, and the Antelopes will have a tough time. Still, the total is rather low, and the Over should just come in late.
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