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Being a proud alum of George Mason University, I know a thing or two about a Cinderella story. “By George, the dream is alive” are words that echo through my mind every year during this tournament.
Did you forget about 2022 when 15-seed Saint Peter’s went on an amazing run to the Elite 8. They took down 2-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Murray State and 3-seed Purdue before finally falling to the 8th-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels.
There will be upsets during this tournament, but when will they happen? That’s the question on everyone’s mind and what I aim to uncover here.
Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s (OR FanDuel Sportsbook’s) NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday’s best 1st-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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NCAA Tournament best Friday first-round underdog picks
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:03 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.
JAMES MADISON (+176) vs. Wisconsin – 9:40 p.m.
The Dukes are one of only 4 teams in the country to win 30 games this season. Their 31st victory came in the Sun Belt Tournament title game, 91-71 over Arkansas State. They are led by Sun Belt player of the year Terrence Edwards Jr., who averaged 17.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. James Madison won 16 of their last 17 games, which includes a current 13 game win streak.
Wisconsin limped to the finish of the regular season, losing 3 of their last 4 games before making a run to the Big Ten Tournament title game. The Badgers were 3-9 away from Madison this season.
In the past 40 years, there have been 53 No. 12 over No. 5 seed upsets. This is crazy to think about, we’ve had as many years without a 12-over-5 upset as we’ve had 3 12-over-5 upsets in the tournament.
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UAB (+240) vs. San Diego State – 1:45 p.m.
The Blazers won their final 5 games including 3 in the American Athletic Conference Tournament to earn their ticket to the Big Dance. UAB beat Wichita State, South Florida and then Temple in the title game 85-69. They are led by 1st-team All AAC player Yaxel Lendeborg, who averaged 13.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.1 blocks per game. UAB is one of the nation’s best at drawing fouls and making free throws. They were 2-1 against Top 25 teams this season.
San Diego State was inconsistent down the stretch, going 4-4 over their final 8 games of the regular season. This team is known for playing tough defensively which could get them into foul trouble in this matchup. They are one of the best teams in the country at guarding the 3, but UAB is not known for their outside shooting. The Aztecs offense can be inconsistent which can be a problem in this tournament.
I already gave you all the stats on why we love a 12-over-5 seed in this tournament.
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UTAH STATE (+146) vs. TCU – 9:55 p.m.
Utah State had won 7 straight games before falling in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament 86-70 to San Diego State. First-team All Mountain West player Great Osobor averaged 18 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists and shot nearly 60% from the field. He should have his way on the interior against a TCU defense which struggles in the paint. The Aggies were 2-0 against teams in the Top 25 this season.
The Horned Frogs lost 3 of their last 4 games of the regular season before falling in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament 60-45 to Houston.
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