March Madness continues to surprise. If you’re still alive in the USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool contest heading into this weekend’s Elite 8, congrats! After Friday’s action, only 210 entries out of 8,109 remain alive.
All four No. 1 seeds are gone. Some of you might have advanced by picking the 9th-seeded FAU Owls. Nicely done! But you’re only half way there. You still have 3 more rounds (picks) to go.
As an employee, I’m not eligible to win this NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool contest. Had I been, I would have been eliminated in the 1st round when No. 2 seed Arizona was knocked out by 15th-seeded Princeton. I also would have been shown the door in the 2nd round with losing picks of Furman (vs. San Diego State) and Auburn (vs. Houston). At least I bounced back with Creighton defeating Princeton in the 3rd round.
For the 1st time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, there are no No. 1 seeds in the Elite 8. So, it’s wide open for the national championship as fans coast to coast, from South Florida to San Diego and Spokane, have dreams of “One Shining Moment..
Here’s my strategy of how to advance into the Final Four and eventually win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.
A rules reminder: Remaining entries are required to pick just 1 team to win for the remaining rounds — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.
You’ll pick 1 team in the Elite 8, 1 in the Final Four and then the National Championship Game winner — if you still have eligible teams to choose from.
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Along with not being able to pick the same team twice, the other tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds.
There are still a lot of points available in the Elite 8. They are:
- 9 – FAU Owls
- 6 – Creighton Bluejays
- 5 – Miami Hurricanes, San Diego State Aztecs
- 4 – UConn Huskies
- 3 – Gonzaga Bulldogs, Kansas State Wildcats
- 2 – Texas Longhorns
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Elite 8 pick
MIAMI HURRICANES (28-7)
Who they play: Texas Longhorns (29-8)
When: Sunday, 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Mo.
Prior to last season, the Hurricanes had never been to the Elite 8. Coach Jim Larranaga has proven that basketball can succeed in South Florida, and NIL deals certainly have helped that success.
This Miami team is playing with a lot of confidence, and it only seems to be getting stronger as the NCAA Tournament goes along.
The Hurricanes topped Drake 63-56 in the 1st round, covering a 2.5-point spread — although covering the spread is not necessary in this contest. You just need your pick to win. Miami has defeated — and covered — against Indiana and Houston, too.
As 1.5-point underdogs, the Hurricanes beat the Hoosiers 85-69 in the 2nd round. As 8-point dogs, they beat the top-seeded Cougars 89-75 in the Sweet 16 Friday.
Now, Miami looks to make its 1st Final Four in program history, and it will be facing a Texas team with an interim head coach.
Texas topped Colgate, Penn State and Xavier to get to this point, winning by 12 or more points in 2 of the outings with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.
Texas is the biggest favorite in the Elite 8, per Tipico Sportsbook, but the spread is just 2 buckets. That’s how tight the books expect all of the games to be this weekend. As a fan, that’s what you should want. In a survivor pool, however, that makes it very difficult to advance.
So why pick against Texas, the largest favorite? I just like how Miami is playing. G Isaiah Wong, the ACC Player of the Year, is averaging 18.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 2.4 APG in the postseason, while hitting 44.4% from behind the 3-point line across 5 games in the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament.
G Nijel Pack, one of the biggest winners in the NIL game in Miami, has averaged 15.8 PPG with 3.6 RPG, while hitting 40.0% from downtown in 5 postseason contests. G’s Jordan Miller and Wooga Poplar also averaged double figures in points, while F Norchad Omier scored 9.0 PPG and pulled down 11.0 RPG in the 5 postseason contests.
Miami is a deep and consistent team from top to bottom, and it will ‘steer’ the Longhorns home to Austin.
Good luck and make sure to check back before the Final 4 for the next winning pick.
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