The No. 9 Creighton Bluejays (22-11) will take on the No. 8 San Diego State Aztecs (23-8) Thursday in the first round of the Midwest Region. Tip from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, is scheduled for 7:27 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Creighton vs. San Diego State odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
The Aztecs are coming off a 1-point loss to the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Conference Championship. SDSU is 17-14 against the spread (ATS) on the season and has covered 6 of its last 9.
The Aztecs are known for their defense, one which allows the second-fewest points per game (58.3) and has the fourth-best opponents’ field goal percentage.
As for the Bluejays, they come into the game after an impressive run to the Big East Championship, where they lost to the South Region’s No. 2 seed, Villanova.
Creighton is 17-14 ATS this season and has covered 9 of its last 11. It is also a defensive-minded program, ranking 30th in opponents’ field goal percentage and allowing just 66.7 points per game.
The Bluejays will be without G Ryan Nembhard, the brother of Gonzaga standout G Andrew Nembhard. The 2021-22 Big East Freshman of the Year recently tore his ACL ending his season.
Creighton vs. San Diego State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Creighton +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | San Diego State -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Creighton +2.5 (-110) | San Diego State -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 120.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Creighton vs. San Diego State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 59, Creighton 55
Money line
LEAN to SAN DIEGO STATE -150.
The loss of Nembhard is going to be difficult to overcome for Creighton. The offensive firepower just isn’t there.
The Bluejays already rank just 233rd in the nation in points per game and 310th in three-point shooting. It won’t get easier for them as they take on the Aztecs, who have the second-best defense in the nation per Kenpom.
Also, SDSU has 6 players averaging over 5 points per game and none over 10. It is deeper than Creighton which has just their starting 5 averaging over 3.5 per game following Nembhard’s injury.
Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not trusting this 8 vs. 9 match-up. I’ll take the defensive-minded SDSU over a short-handed Bluejays to win outright for the slightly more expensive price.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 120.5 (-108).
If there’s one thing both teams have been good at this season, it’s not hitting the projected total. The Bluejays put up just 48 points in their last game against a slow-paced Villanova. SDSU plays both slow and is elite defensively.
SDSU ranks 2nd per Kenpom while Creighton sits 17th. Both are outside the top 175 in adjusted tempo as well. The Bluejays are 11-21-1 O/U this season while the Aztecs are 12-19 O/U.
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