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The 10th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13) face the seventh-seeded Kansas Jayhawks (21-12) Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament’s West Region. Tip from Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island, is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Arkansas vs. Kansas odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Razorbacks lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament 83-80 to the Ole Miss Rebels March 13 in Nashville, though they covered as 4.5-point underdogs with the Over (147) cashing. They beat the South Carolina Gamecocks 72-68 in the first round, pushing as 4 point favorites — the Over (139.5) hit in this one, too. Arkansas has won 5 of its last 7 games, going 4-2-1 against the spread (ATS) with the Over cashing 6 times. The Razorbacks are 14-17-2 ATS on the season.
The Jayhawks lost in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals to the Arizona Wildcats 88-77 March 13 in Kansas City as 3-point underdogs with the Over (153) coming through. Kansas needed OT in its first-round game to beat UCF 99-94, failing to cover as a 10.5-point favorite as the Over (155.5) hit here, too. Kansas won just 3 of its last 7 games to close out the regular season but squeaked by with a 4-3 ATS mark in those. It is 15-18 ATS on the season.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll
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Arkansas vs. Kansas odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Arkansas +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Kansas -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Arkansas +5.5 (-115) | Kansas -5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 146.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Arkansas vs. Kansas picks and predictions
Prediction
Kansas 81, Arkansas 72
Moneyline
PASS.
The only real way to look at the moneyline is in Arkansas’ favor — since it’s plus-money (+180) — but that’s not how I see this playing out. Meanwhile, Kansas (-220) is too expensive to play to win outright.
Against the spread
BET KANSAS -5.5 (-105).
The Jayhawks have size in C Hunter Dickinson (17.6 PPG, 10.0 RPG), athleticism in F KJ Adams (9.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and experience in G Dajuan Harris (9.2 PPG, 5.7 APG). With legendary coach Bill Self at the helm, they should come out aggressive and be able to win and cover. Kansas covered in 4 of its last 5 regular-season games and are 2-1 ATS in its last 3 as a single-digit favorite.
The Razorbacks have had an up-and-down season and have a few awful losses, most notably a 19-point defeat at South Carolina (72-53) March 1 and a 78-74 setback at LSU Jan. 14. The Gamecocks finished last and the Tigers 15th in the 16-team SEC, respectively. Excluding the conference tournament in Nashville, Arkansas was 1-3 ATS in a neutral-court setting this season.
BACK KANSAS -5.5 (-105).
Over/Under
BET OVER 146.5 (-105).
Offensively, both teams are hot, and they should stay that way Thursday in Providence.
The Razorbacks have scored at least 72 in 4 consecutive games and at least 80 points in 5 of their last 7 games. The Over cashed in their last 4 outings as well — all 4 above this 146.5 total.
The Jayhawks have gone Over in 3 straight, scoring at least 77 points in each. The Over is 6-2 in their last 8.
Considering these trends, TAKE OVER 146.5 (-105).
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