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The 16th-seeded Alabama State Hornets (20-15) meet the top-seeded Auburn Tigers (28-5) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament’s South Region Thursday. Tip from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, is set for 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Alabama State vs. Auburn odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Hornets created the first “Shining Moment” of the 2025 NCAA Tournament with a dramatic 70-68 victory over the St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash Tuesday in a First Four contest in Dayton, Ohio. G Amarr Knox’s layup with 1 second to go off of several deflections off a “hail mary” pass from G Micah Simpson was the winning basket. Knox’s 16 points led 3 Hornets in double figures as they advanced to the field of 64 but failed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs with the Over (135.5) hitting.
Alabama State finished fourth in the SWAC regular season before running the table with 3 consecutive wins in the conference tournament to claim the title and the SWAC’s automatic bid to the Big Dance. The Hornets beat the second-seeded Jackson State Tigers 60-56 in the SWAC title game Saturday in College Park, Georgia, covering as 2.5-point underdogs with the Under (141) cashing. Alabama State is 7-0 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last 7 games. It is 14-18-2 ATS on the season.
Auburn, which enters the NCAA Tournament as the fourth-ranked team in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, lost to the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers in an SEC Tournament semifinal in Nashville Saturday 70-65. The Tigers were upset as 5-point favorites with the Under (141.5) hitting. Auburn still earned the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament despite having lost 3 of its last 4 games. It is 18-15 ATS on the season.
F Johni Broome was a unanimous first-team selection for the AP All-America team. The senior averaged team-bests in points (18.9 per game), rebounds (10.6) and assists (3.1). He led the SEC in rebounds per game, too. G Chad Baker-Mazara (12.6 PPG), G Miles Kelly (11.5), G Tahaad Pettiford (11.0) and G Denver Jones (10.7) also average double figures in points for the Tigers.
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Alabama State vs. Auburn odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 10:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Off the board
- Against the spread (ATS): Alabama State +32.5 (-115) | Auburn -32.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook:
- ML: Auburn -100000 (bet $100,000 to make $100) | Alabama State +7000 (bet $100 to make $7,000)
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Alabama State vs. Auburn picks and predictions
Prediction
Auburn 92, Alabama State 55
Moneyline
PASS.
It would be stunning if the Tigers (-100000) don’t cruise to a victory, but they simply aren’t worth a play as such massive and expensive favorites.
Against the spread
BET AUBURN -32.5 (-105).
The Hornets faced Cincinnati, SMU and Missouri earlier in the season, their only games as underdogs of 20 points or more. They lost all 3 by at least 17 points but did cover in 2 of them. Having played Tuesday, Alabama State should get overpowered by Auburn.
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in games in which they were favored by 20 or more points. They went 5-1 ATS in their first 6 neutral-court games before failing to cover in their last 2 at the SEC Tournament in which they went 1-1 SU. Auburn has struggled against top sides as of late, so it might play a little more aggressively.
With size on its side, TAKE AUBURN -32.5 (-105).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 149.5 (-105).
The Tigers should be leading with ease after the first 20 minutes, leading to taking some time off the clock in the second half. Their offense has also struggled in postseason play, scoring 63.5 points per game in their 2 SEC Tourney contests.
The Hornets are 2-2 O/U in the postseason after closing the regular season with 7 consecutive Unders. Alabama State is 13-20-1 O/U on the season. Having allowed 68 or fewer points in 3 straight, it might be able to keep the Tigers at bay for a little bit as well.
Back UNDER 149.5 (-105).
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