Mailbag: Indulging the Michigan QB curiosity

Answering your Michigan football questions in written form, including the latest on quarterbacks, who could break out at RB and more.

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While we do a mailbag every week on the Locked On Wolverines Podcast, last week, we did a written mailbag with fewer questions, which seemed to go over well.

So with the majority of readers still being under stay-at-home orders, we’re going to continue this, making it a trend to be released every Sunday.

We got a lot of questions about the quarterback situation, but also a couple, generally-speaking, in recruiting.

So, without further ado, let’s get to the latest iteration of the mailbag, starting with a topic I firmly rebutted on the podcast a month or two back.

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A recruiting narrative that is frequently used to punish Michigan

Because it’s a narrative that can be constantly pushed.

Here’s the deal: since Jim Harbaugh arrived, he’s brought in 12 signees from the state of Ohio — including six in the 2019 class alone. There’s two Ohioans committed in the 2021 class as well. You can question about bringing in players that do or do not have Ohio State offers or not, but unlike in the past, the schemes between the two teams on both sides of the ball haven’t been necessarily aligned. By contrast, Michigan has brought in 26 players from the state of Michigan — thus also destroying the narrative that Michigan doesn’t recruit its own state — but also has brought in 19 signees from the fertile state of Florida, 10 from Georgia and 5 from Alabama. There’s always the talk about New England, so in those classes that had been signed, the Wolverines brought in 6 from Connecticut and 5 from Massachussetts.

That’s not counting the various other states. Michigan has also brought in 7 players each from California and New Jersey, and has signed players from 24 U.S. states as well as Washington D.C. Recruiting is much more national than it was once upon a time.

The reason I feel it tends to be top of mind is because, back in the day, recruiting at a school like Michigan was much more regional. You got the best from your own state if you could and then the surrounding states. That included Ohio, of course. And many of Michigan’s best players historically were from Ohio — Charles Woodson and Desmond Howard are famously from The Buckeye State. However, times have changed. But while OSU has continued to pull from its own state — 48 players from Ohio in the same time frame — it’s also gone (and been) national. 17 players from Florida, 9 from Texas, 7 from New Jersey, 5 from Michigan, 4 from California and 3 from Georgia.

Those who put it on Michigan as to the lack of success on the field due to the lack of recruiting Ohio are just looking at the 70s, 80s and 90s and pretending like nothing’s changed. But, of course, had the Wolverines gotten some wins over the Buckeyes, there would be a different tune being sung. However, it makes for some good anti-maize and blue fodder, despite the fact that this is just the nature of recruiting nowadays. And there’s nothing wrong with Michigan’s strategy, nor do I feel like it’s the reason why it hasn’t won The Game since 2011.

Michigan’s QB battle

Ok, so here’s what he said for anyone who missed it — and I hadn’t written the story on it yet, because I felt there were other things that were more interesting straight out the gates:

“They were all even going into this pandemic,” Gattis said. “The reason I laughed is the two quarterback deal of playing two quarterbacks. I think the opinion out there a lot of people end up booing on two quarterback plays so I don’t think that’s really up to an option of anything from that standpoint. I mean, we got to get the reps we got to get the battle going to figure out you who’s gonna be our quarterback. They’re all even, they’re all dead even, there’s nobody out front, there’s nobody left behind. Each guy is different. Each guy has a different strength and a different weakness than the other guys. It’s a really interesting battle. We’ve got to be able to decide who’s going to give us the best opportunity to win games. I think they all three can give us opportunities to win games and so we’re just gonna have to catch them up. No guys out front, no guys behind, there is no order. It’s not based on last year. It’s not based on the depth chart last year. Those things are not important. What the depth chart last year was, was irrelevant because we had one quarterback who was our starter so it didn’t matter who was listed as a two, it didn’t matter who was listed as three. Shea Patterson was our quarterback. When you get into what the listings are of backup guys, that’s totally irrelevant into this battle for this year. Now we just got to be able to get the battle going back once we get back.”

I think what he said is reality. There is no clear front-runner, and for those who were clamoring for McCaffrey last year were likely in a similar situation in 2017, wanting either Peters or O’Korn ahead of Speight, despite Speight being the top guy.

Right now, I do believe they are all even, and based off my conversations, that seems to be the status quo. Especially without having had spring ball, it’s hard to really slot any of the three ahead of one another.

However, here’s what I believe, based off what I’ve heard: any of the three can lead Michigan’s offense well, which should be obvious, since they’re all scholarship players and they’ve all had time in the system now. Michigan could be better off if Milton wins due to his versatility. He has the highest upside, the biggest arm and can run. McCaffrey, as we’ve seen, is more athletic and a more obvious dual-threat. But, you’re right: what about McNamara?

College football’s offenses really take off now with a guy who’s more accurate than being a downfield or running threat. That’s just how it is. I think that whoever wins the job should be the most accurate passer. Gone are the days where a 60% completion record on the year will get you to the promised land. That’s still a benchmark that needs to be hit, but when you look at the passers who led their teams to the College Football Playoff finals, this is what you see:

Year QB Team Comp % Nat’l Rank
2019 Joe Burrow* LSU 76.3 1
2019 Trevor Lawrence Clemson 65.8 16
2018 Trevor Lawrence* Clemson 65.2 21
2018 Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 69 5
2017 Jalen Hurts* Alabama 60.6 48
2017 Tua Tagovailoa* Alabama 63.6 NR (~24)
2017 Jake Fromm Georgia 62.2 35
2016 Jalen Hurts Alabama 62.8 27
2016 DeShaun Watson* Clemson 67 10
2015 DeShaun Watson Clemson 67.8 5
2015 Jake Coker* Alabama 66.9 11

* denotes winner

So it’s not that you have to have a Joe Burrow-esque year, which might have been the best ever in college football. But generally, you have to be above 62% passing, if not closer to 70%.

If McNamara is more capable at completing passes, as well as can make the right reads, manage under pressure and all of the other intangibles that come with being a quarterback, then he should be the guy. But right now, without having had spring, there’s no way to tell where any of the three stand depth-wise. That’s something that will only be proven once the bullets are live, and even then, we might not have a cemented starter until we’re into the season.

Running backs

It definitely is, and when a lot of fans were fretting over Shea Patterson midseason last year, I was told that Michigan was more concerned with the state of the run game.

As far as picking a player, I can’t. There’s too much going on in that running backs room. I could see any of the five breaking out.

Starting with Haskins and Charbonnet, both played well despite it being their first year playing as a college football tailback. Both were excellent in pass protection, which allowed them to see the field early and often. Both are elusive and athletic.

Chris Evans has been there, done that for three years, and we’ve seen how explosive he can be. It seems that he fell off a little his junior year, but this is a system under Josh Gattis that could certainly showcase his talents more than the previous offenses. But he’s been away from football for over a year now.

Christian Turner is lightning fast. If he stays healthy and gets better at pass blocking, he could be a dark horse, in my opinion.

And while Blake Corum is entering his first year, I don’t think it would surprise anyone if he literally takes the ball and runs with it, given how fast he is and what he showed at the high school level.

There’s not a clear right answer. If I had to put money on someone, I’d cheat and go with both Haskins and Charbonnet. Because it felt like they were just heating up as the season wound down.

Silent commitments?

While I think it’s doubtful at the moment, and I will admittedly say that I don’t know for certain, even if Michigan did, we’ve seen time and time again that silent commitments mean little.

Yes, sometimes you win on these. Ambry Thomas and Mike Sainristil were long time silent commits. Braiden McGregor was a short-term silent. But other times, players either say they’re coming or insinuate it while looking for other options.

At least with a verbal commitment — which also is of relatively limited value if the prospect in question is actively seeking other opportunities — they have their cards on the table. A silent is close to meaningless, unless it’s just because they have a certain date they want to announce on but want to ensure their spot.

Regardless, most of Michigan’s big targets that are still on the board are going to go through their process. Clarkston duo Rocco Spindler and Garrett Dellinger, West Bloomfield’s Donovan Edwards, Arizona standout Quintin Somerville, Iowa tight end Thomas Fidone, Florida DE Dallas Turner, etc.

Generally, the bulk of high-end prospects are going to make either late-spring or summer decisions. I know the waiting game can be tedious, but whatever Michigan’s board is as time continues, I’d bet on it getting the bulk of its wish list.