LSU and Texas A&M will battle for sole first place in the SEC on Saturday night. The two programs are the last remaining undefeated units in conference play and the winner enters the driver’s seat for a trip to Atlanta and the College Football Playoff.
Dating back to 2017, the Tigers and Aggies have traded wins. Texas A&M wins in College Station and LSU wins in Baton Rouge — that’s the script of the last six years.
LSU’s last win at Kyle Field was in November of 2016. It was the final game of Ed Orgeron’s interim stint before being named head coach, so it’s been a minute.
A&M is led by first-year head coach Mike Elko, a former assistant of Brian Kelly’s at Notre Dame. Elko had success at Duke and already has A&M on an upward swing.
Both teams are expecting to compete for the playoff late into November and a win on Saturday all but secures that.
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect when LSU and Texas A&M hit the field.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting lines
- Spread: Texas A&M -1
- Total: 54.5
- Moneyline: Texas A&M -115
All College Football Odds via BetMGM.
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The line moved in LSU’s favor throughout the week. LSU was a field goal underdog at one point, but A&M is only getting a point now, per BetMGM.
Vegas is expecting a close one with an implied score of 28-27.
Despite a 6-1 record, Texas A&M is 2-5 against the spread. The two covers came against Florida and Missouri, but A&M failed to cover against Mississippi State last week.
LSU began the year 0-4 ATS, but has covered three straight spreads. LSU is rounding into form, but Kelly and Tiger fans will hope for another step on Saturday.
As for the total, it reflects the balance both teams are playing with. LSU and A&M are playing good football on both sides of the ball right now.
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When LSU has the ball
LSU’s offensive line vs. Texas A&M’s defensive front is the matchup to watch.
A&M’s front seven is loaded with talent and the duo of Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton off the edge is dangerous. But LSU’s line isn’t new to this challenge,
The Tigers faced one of the SEC’s top pass rushes when it faced South Carolina and another good one against Ole Miss. LSU QB [autotag]Garrett Nussmeier[/autotag] has taken one sack all year and I expect LSU’s protection to hold up again on Saturday.
The real test is in the run game. LSU’s offensive line doesn’t get a consistent push against top defensive lines. According to GameOnPaper.com, LSU ranks 99th in rushing success rate — a mark that won’t get LSU where it wants to go.
A&M will be able to keep LSU off schedule and stuff a few runs, but LSU’s offense knows how to operate in passing downs.
That’s what this matchup comes down to. Can A&M cover LSU or get to Nussmeier when the Tigers get in 2nd and 3rd and long?
When Texas A&M has the ball
Mike Elko tabbed Colin Klein to run the Aggies’ offense. Game 1 was rough as A&M struggled to score against Notre Dame. But since Week 1, there’s been a steady improvement.
A&M showcases a balanced attack that ranks above average in EPA/run and EPA/pass. Connor Weigman is averaging over 10 yards per attempt since returning from injury and RB Le’Veon Moss has proven to be a bellcow in the backfield.
The key for LSU’s defense: ensuring efficient plays don’t turn into explosive plays.
Nearly 65% of Weigman’s passing attempts travel nine air yards or less. A&M will get the ball out quickly and hope its skill guys make a play. It’s on LSU’s secondary to prevent those plays from getting mad.
A&M can take the completions that are there, but LSU must limit the catch-and-run opportunities.
The same can be said for Moss running the ball. Four to five yards per carry is fine as long as he’s not ripping off 15-yard runs. If LSU tackles well, A&M has to earn its points drive after drive. I’m not sure the Aggie offense is ready to do that yet.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction
If this comes down to what offense makes just enough plays to win, I trust LSU. Nussmeier gives LSU a reliable QB to come through on third down and Durham has the elusiveness to rip off big runs.
I think LB [autotag]Whit Weeks[/autotag] continues to lead a defensive renaissance and LSU keeps the Aggie offense in check.
I like to cover and win, 27-23.
Spread Pick: LSU +1
Total pick: Under
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