LSU football will bring its 2024 season to a close when it faces Baylor in the Texas Bowl.
After weeks of focus on the transfer portal and recruiting, the focus returns to football.
LSU enters the game at 8-4. Brian Kelly and the Tigers can’t match the 10-win marks from 2022 and 2023, but LSU can finish the year on a three-game winning streak with a win. That’s needed after a three-game losing streak ended the Tigers’ playoff hopes in November.
Bowl game momentum can be overrated, but LSU wants to go into the offseason on a high note.
Vibes are good with LSU building one of the top transfer classes in the country. A loss doesn’t negate that, but a win carries momentum into 2025.
Baylor and LSU haven’t met since 1987 — that’s somewhat of a surprise given the school’s regionality.
Let’s jump right in and talk about and break down what we’ll see on the field.
Can Baylor take advantage of LSU’s makeshift offensive line?
The big story in this one is LSU’s offensive line. Both starting tackles, [autotag]Will Campbell[/autotag] and [autotag]Emery Jones[/autotag], opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. LSU was already without guard [autotag]Garrett Dellinger[/autotag], who missed the entire month of November with an ankle injury.
Just two offensive linemen who started the opener are taking the field for LSU: DJ Chester and Miles Frazier.
With Jones out, Frazier will bump out to tackle. Chester will remain at center.
LSU is the underdog, largely in part due to the changes we’ve seen upfront. If LSU can block Baylor, the Tigers win this game. If the line struggles, Nussmeier and the offense are in for a long night.
Baylor’s interior defensive line is one of the best in the Big 12. Defensive tackle Jackie Marshall will be a lot for Chester and company to handle. Chester played his best football in LSU’s final two games — LSU needs that to continue vs. Baylor.
Tyree Adams will make his first career start at left tackle. The pressure is on Adams and Frazier to keep Nussmeier clean. Baylor ranks 75th nationally in sack rate, and the Bears’ pass rush isn’t scary. LSU has the talent to keep Baylor’s pass rush in check, but it remains a question until we see it happen.
Can Garrett Nussmeier continue his breakout?
Breakout may not be the right word. College football has known about Nussmeier for some time now. But he was inconsistent as a starter in 2024.
He made NFL-level throws to lead LSU’s upset of Ole Miss, but his play fell off as LSU embarked on the three-game losing streak.
Nussmeier bounced back as the regular season wrapped up, with strong performances against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. He’ll look for a repeat performance vs. Baylor.
In the Oklahoma win, LSU’s offense found the big play element. Nussmeier connected with wide receiver Chris Hilton twice for 40+ yard touchdowns. After the game, Brian Kelly said establishing the deep ball was pivotal to opening up LSU’s offense.
With LSU throwing over the top, more space opens up in the intermediate passing lanes, an area Nussmeier works well.
At 79.3, Nussmeier’s QBR ranks 12th nationally. When he’s on, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country. LSU needs the good Garrett Nussmeier if it wants to pull the upset.
What should we expect from the LSU defense?
The LSU defense took a major leap in Blake Baker’s first year as defensive coordinator. Last year, the unit finished 52nd in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.
In the latest 2024 rankings, the Tigers’ defense sat 31st. With a few more weeks of bowl practice, could we see another step?
Depth is thin thanks to losses in the transfer portal, but LSU will have its key difference makers. Cornerback Zy Alexander and defensive end Bradyn Swinson are both playing.
According to PFF, Baylor’s pass block grade is 75.9 — middle of the pack in the Big 12. Swinson and the LSU pass rush can take advantage of that.
Baylor’s offense is good, but the Bears were inconsistent when they played the better Big 12 defenses. Baylor scored just 20 points against Houston and 21 vs. Iowa State.
That’s about the level this LSU unit is on.
Players to watch
LSU WR Aaron Anderson: With Kyren Lacy preparing for the draft and CJ Daniels transferring, all the attention will be on Anderson at wide receiver. LSU needs the redshirt sophomore to create some big plays.
Baylor DT Jackie Marshall: Marshall is one of the top run-defending defensive tackles in the country. He can impact the passer, too, with 22 pressures on the year.
LSU RB Caden Durham: With potential struggles on the offensive line, more pressure may be on Durham to make things happen. He has the explosiveness to do it.
Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson: Baylor’s offensive emergence begins with quarterback Sawyer Robertson. He was one of the most productive passers in the Big 12 this fall.
LSU DE Bradyn Swinson: LSU’s defense is at its best when it’s getting after the passer. LSU is one of the most sack-happy teams in the country. A big game from Swinson alleviates pressure elsewhere on the unit.