Why Louisiana Will Win
– The Ragin’ Cajuns are for real. For all of the gushing over Coastal Carolina, Louisiana only lost by three in a great fight, beat Iowa State by 17, went on the road and beat eventual Conference USA champion UAB, and in all, beat five bowl teams. How are they doing it? It starts with an offensive line and an offensive system that doesn’t allow anything to happen in the backfield and consistently cranks up big production from the ground game.
– Louisiana hasn’t allowed much of anything through the air. No one there for 300 yards – Iowa State’s Brock Purdy threw for 145 – and oddly enough, option-offense Georgia Southern came up with the best passing day of the year on this group with just 255 yards. UTSA can throw, but …
– Frank Harris is a good runner and has had his moments as a passer, but he’s not consistent enough. His ten touchdown passes have come in bunches. When he’s on, the team plays well and wins. When he’s off, there’s a problem. Again with the Louisiana secondary, quarterbacks have combined to hit just 51% of their passes with eight touchdowns and 15 interceptions on the year against this group.
Why UTSA Will Win
– The Roadrunners can run a little bit, too. The 443-yard running day against North Texas was a bit of an anomaly – Appalachian State showed in the Myrtle Beach Bowl just how bad the Mean Green run D is – but they ripped off well over 200 yards in each of the last three games thanks to the best running back you probably haven’t heard of.
– Sincere McCormick is a tough, quick 5-9, 200-pound sophomore who came up with a good 983-yard freshman season and blew up this year. The nation’s second-leading rusher who missed a game but still ran for 1,345 yards and 11 touchdowns. Louisiana has the defensive talent to keep McCormick from going off, but he’ll still put up at least 150 yards.
– The Louisiana defense doesn’t get behind the line. UTSA doesn’t do too much to control the clock, but Louisiana doesn’t do anything at all when it comes to time of possession – the Ragin’ Cajun O moves fast, but that’s not always a great thing. UTSA led Conference USA in tackles for loss – that’s a must to get to QB Levi Lewis and the great backfield.