The 2-seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) host the 7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (2-2) Tuesday in Game 5 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series in their self-titled arena at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Suns-Lakers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
The Suns evened the series with the Lakers with a 100-92 Game 4 win in L.A. as 6.5-point underdogs. Banged-up PG Chris Paul scored a team-high 18 points with 9 assists and 0 turnovers for Phoenix.
Injuries are playing a major role in the series with Phoenix now tabbed as the series favorite. CP3 seems to have recovered from a shoulder injury, but Lakers PF Anthony Davis‘ status is in question with a groin injury that caused him to miss the second half of Game 4.
Lakers at Suns: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 6:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Lakers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Suns -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Lakers +5.5 (-110) | Suns -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Lakers at Suns: Key injuries
Lakers
- PF Anthony Davis (groin) questionable
- SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) questionable
Suns
- None
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Lakers at Suns: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Lakers 106, Suns 99
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the LAKERS (+180) for a quarter unit because I like L.A. plus the points and think there’s value in backing SF LeBron James in the playoffs with his back against the wall.
LeBron has never been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs and has been dominant in this series.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Lakers are scoring 37 more points per 100 possessions and have a 15.2% higher effective field-goal percentage with LeBron on the floor.
There’s a solid chance the Lakers count on LeBron holding the fort down and getting close to 40 minutes of action while AD either recovers for Game 5 or is on some sort of minutes restriction.
The Lakers have received solid, but limited, minutes from backup bigs Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell. Both have a 129 or better offensive rating and an 83% or higher true-shooting percentage in the series.
I have high hopes Gasol and Harrell can step up with AD injured and, in a must-win scenario, with LeBron knowing he needs to carry L.A., I’m “SPRINKLING” a tiny wager on the LAKERS (+180).
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET the LAKERS +5.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of L.A.’s money line based on the above written analysis.
The early market report indicates nearly 90% of the money is on the Suns to cover (according to Pregame.com). My inclination is to generally fade this lopsided of a market.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 207.5 (-110) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing the Under and AD’s possible absence would have a bigger effect on L.A.’s defense than offense.
According to Pregame.com, more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over. The money column is usually considered “sharp” compared to the bets placed column, which is deemed your “average Joe.”
Also, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, AD was in the 49th percentile of bigs in defensive points per 100 possessions when on the floor but in the 87th percentile in offensive points per 100 possessions during the regular season.
Lastly, both teams ranked in the top 10 of defensive efficiency during the regular season and Lakers-Suns is the second-slowest series thus far in the postseason.
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